asylumstatsFollow the money
East of England

Braintree

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sir James Cleverly
Sir James CleverlyConservative · Braintree
791 people on asylum support in Braintree

Rank 28 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 47.52 per 10,000 puts Braintree in the 99th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 791 people at £107 per person per day is about £30.9M a year.

What asylum costs Braintree

£17.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.0Msubsistence payments/year
£949KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 791 people on asylum support in Braintree(0.85% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Braintree: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

691
1,0977313660Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20142
Jun 20142
Sept 20143
Dec 20142
Mar 20152
Jun 20152
Sept 20152
Dec 20153
Mar 20163
Jun 20163
Sept 20163
Dec 20163
Mar 20173
Jun 20173
Sept 20173
Jun 20211
Dec 20213
Mar 20223
Jun 20223
Sept 20221
Dec 20222
Mar 20232
Jun 20239
Sept 2023140
Dec 2023529
Mar 2024568
Jun 2024543
Sept 2024564
Dec 2024531
Mar 2025594
Jun 2025664
Sept 20251,097
Dec 2025691

Trend

-406Latest quarter change
+689Change across series
33Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation45
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
791
Homes for Ukraine
321
Afghan programme
17
Resettlement cumulative
7

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine321
Afghan programme17
Resettlement cumulative7

Population context

All pathways total1,129
Share of local population0.68%

Ethnic composition projection

Braintree: White British 90.3% (2021) to 80.6% (2051). 80% CI: 80.3, 83.3%.

Ethnic composition: Braintree

025497498% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 75% in 2061White Other 7% in 2061Black 3% in 2061Mixed 10% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherBlackMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Braintree

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
93%
2021
90%
2031proj
88%
2041proj
85%
2051proj
81%
2061proj
75%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Braintree ranges from59.1% to 77.7%by 2051. That is a 18.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 66.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.7% (2021) → 1.0% (2051). Christian 50.0% → 12.0%.

Religion: Braintree

728497091%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 86% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

7.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 97% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Braintree

226507498%Census 2021UK-born 62% in 2051Foreign-born 38% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.8% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black17.8% internal, 1.4% international
white other12.5% internal, 1.5% international
mixed13.4% internal, 0.5% international
other11% internal, 2.3% international
asian8.3% internal, 1.2% international
white british8.4% internal, 0.2% international

Why Braintree is changing

-2.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+4.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Braintree on UK Demographics →