Trend
-406 Latest quarter change
+689 Change across series
33 Official data points
Braintree
Sir James Cleverly
767 people housed on asylum support in Braintree
Rank 31 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 46.68 per 10,000 puts Braintree in the 99th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £42M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Braintree
£15.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.0Msubsistence payments/year
£920KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 767 people on asylum support in Braintree (0.72% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Braintree: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 40
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 316
Afghan programme 17
Resettlement cumulative 7
Population context
All pathways total 1,100
Share of local population 0.67%
Ethnic composition projection
Braintree: WBI 90.3% (2021) → 83.6% (2051). 80% CI: 76.5–79.6%.
Ethnic composition: Braintree
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Braintree
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Braintree ranges from 59.1% to 77.7% by 2051. That is a 18.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 66.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.7% (2021) → 1.0% (2051). Christian 50.0% → 12.0%.
Religion: Braintree
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
7.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 97% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Braintree
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.8% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black 17.8% internal, 1.4% international
white other 12.5% internal, 1.5% international
mixed 13.4% internal, 0.5% international
other 11% internal, 2.3% international
asian 8.3% internal, 1.2% international
white british 8.4% internal, 0.2% international
Why Braintree is changing
-2.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Braintree on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.3%
Mixed 72.6%
White Other 75%
Other 69.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 69.4%
Mixed 58.4%
White Other 54.2%
Other 53.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.9%
Mixed 34.5%
White Other 40.6%
Other 38%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
767 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
46.68 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East of England by supported asylum.