asylumstatsFollow the money
South West

Bristol, City of

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Carla Denyer
Carla DenyerGreen · Bristol Central

5 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bristol, City of.

689 people on asylum support in Bristol, City of

Rank 36 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 13.91 per 10,000 puts Bristol, City of in the 68th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2052. 52 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 318 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 689 people at £107 per person per day is about £26.9M a year.

What asylum costs Bristol, City of

£15.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.8Msubsistence payments/year
£827KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 689 people on asylum support in Bristol, City of(0.74% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Bristol, City of: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,108
1,3799194600Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014265
Jun 2014280
Sept 2014283
Dec 2014265
Mar 2015279
Jun 2015278
Sept 2015294
Dec 2015328
Mar 2016326
Jun 2016322
Sept 2016315
Dec 2016315
Mar 2017309
Jun 2017282
Sept 2017276
Dec 2017268
Mar 2018338
Jun 2018338
Sept 2018315
Dec 2018328
Mar 2019325
Jun 2019324
Sept 2019305
Dec 2019271
Mar 2020270
Jun 2020302
Sept 2020315
Dec 2020301
Mar 2021312
Jun 2021315
Sept 2021321
Dec 2021341
Mar 2022336
Jun 2022321
Sept 2022336
Dec 2022445
Mar 2023458
Jun 2023725
Sept 20231,206
Dec 20231,190
Mar 20241,003
Jun 20241,072
Sept 20241,075
Dec 20241,341
Mar 20251,265
Jun 20251,188
Sept 20251,379
Dec 20251,108

Trend

-271Latest quarter change
+843Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation319
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only52
Contingency accommodation318

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
689
Homes for Ukraine
1,107
Afghan programme
491
Resettlement cumulative
499

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine1,107
Afghan programme491
Resettlement cumulative499

Population context

All pathways total2,287
Share of local population0.46%

Ethnic composition projection

Bristol, City of: White British 71.6% (2021) to 51.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2052. 80% CI: 48, 55.9%.

Ethnic composition: Bristol, City of

021416283% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 44% in 2061White Other 13% in 2061Asian 9% in 2061Black 13% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 10% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Bristol, City of

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
78%
8%
2021
72%
9%
2031proj
66%
11%
2041proj
59%
12%
8%
9%
2051proj
51%
13%
9%
11%
9%
2061proj
44%
13%
9%
13%
12%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Bristol, City of ranges from55.0% to 60.1%by 2051. That is a 5.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 57.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 7.2% (2021) → 9.2% (2051). Christian 34.6% → 6.5%.

Religion: Bristol, City of

123446587%Census 2021Christian 6% in 2051No religion 82% in 2051Muslim 9% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

18.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.57). 89.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Bristol, City of

1432506886%Census 2021UK-born 48% in 2051Foreign-born 52% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 13.7% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other18% internal, 4.1% international
other15.1% internal, 5.5% international
asian13.1% internal, 6.2% international
mixed15.7% internal, 1.4% international
white british13.4% internal, 0.5% international
black9.1% internal, 1.8% international

Why Bristol, City of is changing

-6.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.2pp
Local migration
0pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Bristol, City of on UK Demographics →