Trend
-271 Latest quarter change
+843 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bristol, City of
Carla Denyer
5 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bristol, City of.
879 people housed on asylum support in Bristol, City of
Rank 27 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 17.78 per 10,000 puts Bristol, City of in the 76th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2045. 472 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £48M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Bristol, City of
£17.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.2Msubsistence payments/year
£1.1MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 879 people on asylum support in Bristol, City of (0.82% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Bristol, City of: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 354
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 53
Contingency accommodation 472
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,074
Afghan programme 487
Resettlement cumulative 494
Population context
All pathways total 2,440
Share of local population 0.49%
Ethnic composition projection
Bristol, City of: WBI 71.6% (2021) → 43.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2045. 80% CI: 43.4–49.8%.
Ethnic composition: Bristol, City of
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Bristol, City of
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Bristol, City of ranges from 55.0% to 60.1% by 2051. That is a 5.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 57.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 7.2% (2021) → 9.2% (2051). Christian 34.6% → 6.5%.
Religion: Bristol, City of
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
18.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.57). 89.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Bristol, City of
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 13.7% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
white other 18% internal, 4.1% international
other 15.1% internal, 5.5% international
asian 13.1% internal, 6.2% international
mixed 15.7% internal, 1.4% international
white british 13.4% internal, 0.5% international
black 9.1% internal, 1.8% international
Why Bristol, City of is changing
-6.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Bristol, City of on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63%
Mixed 66.7%
White Other 80.5%
Other 59%
Homeownership rate
White British 58%
Mixed 34.7%
White Other 36.6%
Other 27.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 40.6%
Mixed 41.6%
White Other 54.3%
Other 44.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
879 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.78 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
472 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South West by supported asylum.