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South East

Buckinghamshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Greg Smith
Greg SmithConservative · Mid Buckinghamshire
180 people on asylum support in Buckinghamshire

Rank 146 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.08 per 10,000 puts Buckinghamshire in the 34th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2048. 19 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 180 people at £107 per person per day is about £7.0M a year.

What asylum costs Buckinghamshire

£4.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£460Ksubsistence payments/year
£216KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 180 people on asylum support in Buckinghamshire(0.19% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Buckinghamshire: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

194
226151750Mar 2018Dec 2025Peak Mar 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201838
Jun 201834
Sept 201831
Dec 201830
Mar 201934
Jun 201938
Sept 201937
Dec 201937
Mar 202040
Jun 202038
Sept 202039
Dec 202046
Mar 202159
Jun 202163
Sept 202168
Dec 202187
Mar 202292
Jun 202291
Sept 202294
Dec 2022224
Mar 2023226
Jun 2023226
Sept 2023217
Dec 202380
Mar 202498
Jun 202491
Sept 2024108
Dec 2024112
Mar 2025113
Jun 2025155
Sept 2025162
Dec 2025194

Trend

+32Latest quarter change
+156Change across series
32Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation161
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only19
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
180
Homes for Ukraine
2,256
Afghan programme
170
Resettlement cumulative
15

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine2,256
Afghan programme170
Resettlement cumulative15

Population context

All pathways total2,606
Share of local population0.45%

Ethnic composition projection

Buckinghamshire: White British 72.6% (2021) to 48.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2048.

Ethnic composition: Buckinghamshire

019395878% of populationCensus 2021White British 48% in 2051White Other 12% in 2051Asian 22% in 2051Black 6% in 2051Mixed 6% in 2051Other 5% in 20512021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Buckinghamshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2021
73%
12%
2021
73%
12%
2026proj
68%
8%
14%
2031proj
64%
9%
16%
2036proj
60%
10%
18%
2041proj
55%
11%
19%
2046proj
52%
12%
21%
2051proj
48%
12%
22%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Buckinghamshire ranges from54.4% to 59.7%by 2051. That is a 5.3pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.6% by 2051
Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Buckinghamshire on UK Demographics →