Trend
+32 Latest quarter change
+156 Change across series
32 Official data points
Buckinghamshire
Greg Smith
210 people housed on asylum support in Buckinghamshire
Rank 138 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.63 per 10,000 puts Buckinghamshire in the 37th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2048. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £11M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Buckinghamshire
£4.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£537Ksubsistence payments/year
£252KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 210 people on asylum support in Buckinghamshire (0.20% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Buckinghamshire: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 192
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 18
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 2,216
Afghan programme 174
Resettlement cumulative 15
Population context
All pathways total 2,600
Share of local population 0.45%
Ethnic composition projection
Buckinghamshire: WBI 72.6% (2021) → 48.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 44.7–50.2%.
Ethnic composition: Buckinghamshire
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Buckinghamshire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Buckinghamshire ranges from 54.4% to 59.7% by 2051. That is a 5.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.6% by 2051
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Buckinghamshire on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.1%
Mixed 70.8%
White Other 75.8%
Other 67.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 73.3%
Mixed 52.9%
White Other 53%
Other 61.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 40.1%
Mixed 39.9%
White Other 49.6%
Other 49.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 89,116 pupils. 55.1% White British. Schools are 17.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 55.1%
Asian 23.9%
Mixed 8.8%
White Other 7.3%
Black 4%
Other 1%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
44.9% Minority pupils now
45.5% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
57% Primary WBI
52.8% Secondary WBI
Slowing diversification. Primary schools are less diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.3pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 64.5% vs school 55.1% (-9.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
210 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
3.63 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.