Trend
+28 Latest quarter change
+223 Change across series
43 Official data points
Canterbury
Rosie Duffield
222 people housed on asylum support in Canterbury
Rank 133 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 13.7 per 10,000 puts Canterbury in the 66th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £12M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Canterbury
£4.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£568Ksubsistence payments/year
£266KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 222 people on asylum support in Canterbury (0.21% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Canterbury: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 220
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 467
Afghan programme 198
Resettlement cumulative 82
Population context
All pathways total 887
Share of local population 0.55%
Ethnic composition projection
Canterbury: WBI 82.5% (2021) → 71.4% (2051). 80% CI: 63.8–68.4%.
Ethnic composition: Canterbury
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Canterbury
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Canterbury ranges from 50.9% to 65.5% by 2051. That is a 14.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.7% (2051). Christian 50.2% → 13.0%.
Religion: Canterbury
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
12.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.4). 94.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Canterbury
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 13.2% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
black 35.9% internal, 5.5% international
asian 20.2% internal, 8% international
mixed 22.3% internal, 2.5% international
other 19.8% internal, 4.7% international
white other 17.2% internal, 5.7% international
white british 11.5% internal, 0.5% international
Why Canterbury is changing
-5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Canterbury on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 52.9%
Mixed 55.2%
White Other 65.3%
Other 51.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.7%
Mixed 44.4%
White Other 46.8%
Other 43.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.4%
Mixed 35.6%
White Other 51%
Other 42.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
222 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
13.7 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.