asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Canterbury

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Rosie Duffield
Rosie DuffieldIndependent · Canterbury
205 people on asylum support in Canterbury

Rank 132 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 12.61 per 10,000 puts Canterbury in the 66th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 205 people at £107 per person per day is about £8.0M a year.

What asylum costs Canterbury

£4.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£524Ksubsistence payments/year
£246KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 205 people on asylum support in Canterbury(0.22% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Canterbury: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

227
227151760Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20144
Jun 20143
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20153
Jun 20153
Sept 20154
Dec 20154
Mar 20161
Jun 20162
Sept 20162
Dec 20162
Mar 20172
Jun 20172
Sept 20173
Dec 20173
Mar 20184
Jun 20182
Sept 20181
Sept 20191
Dec 20191
Mar 20202
Jun 20202
Sept 20201
Dec 20201
Sept 20211
Dec 20211
Mar 20223
Jun 20223
Sept 20223
Dec 202214
Mar 202316
Jun 202363
Sept 202373
Dec 202372
Mar 202485
Jun 202494
Sept 2024108
Dec 2024103
Mar 2025156
Jun 2025184
Sept 2025199
Dec 2025227

Trend

+28Latest quarter change
+223Change across series
43Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation204
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
205
Homes for Ukraine
471
Afghan programme
198
Resettlement cumulative
82

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine471
Afghan programme198
Resettlement cumulative82

Population context

All pathways total874
Share of local population0.54%

Ethnic composition projection

Canterbury: White British 82.5% (2021) to 69.2% (2051). 80% CI: 67.7, 73.2%.

Ethnic composition: Canterbury

023466993% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 63% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Asian 5% in 2061Black 3% in 2061Mixed 9% in 2061Other 9% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Canterbury

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
88%
2021
82%
2031proj
80%
2041proj
75%
9%
2051proj
69%
10%
2061proj
63%
10%
9%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Canterbury ranges from50.9% to 65.5%by 2051. That is a 14.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.7% (2051). Christian 50.2% → 13.0%.

Religion: Canterbury

021436485%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 80% in 2051Muslim 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

12.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.4). 94.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Canterbury

829507192%Census 2021UK-born 59% in 2051Foreign-born 41% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 13.2% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
black35.9% internal, 5.5% international
asian20.2% internal, 8% international
mixed22.3% internal, 2.5% international
other19.8% internal, 4.7% international
white other17.2% internal, 5.7% international
white british11.5% internal, 0.5% international

Why Canterbury is changing

-5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.6pp
Local migration
+2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Canterbury on UK Demographics →