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Cardiff

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Jo Stevens
Jo StevensLabour · Cardiff East

4 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Cardiff.

1,313 people on asylum support in Cardiff

Rank 11 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 34.42 per 10,000 puts Cardiff in the 94th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 36 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 96 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 1,313 people at £107 per person per day is about £51.3M a year.

What asylum costs Cardiff

£29.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.4Msubsistence payments/year
£1.6MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,313 people on asylum support in Cardiff(1.41% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Cardiff: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,418
1,7771,1855920Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014979
Jun 2014976
Sept 2014922
Dec 2014958
Mar 20151,037
Jun 20151,041
Sept 20151,102
Dec 20151,450
Mar 20161,346
Jun 20161,326
Sept 20161,372
Dec 20161,409
Mar 20171,327
Jun 20171,255
Sept 20171,269
Dec 20171,286
Mar 20181,471
Jun 20181,448
Sept 20181,420
Dec 20181,475
Mar 20191,448
Jun 20191,450
Sept 20191,482
Dec 20191,340
Mar 20201,601
Jun 20201,655
Sept 20201,660
Dec 20201,595
Mar 20211,526
Jun 20211,347
Sept 20211,316
Dec 20211,351
Mar 20221,347
Jun 20221,498
Sept 20221,457
Dec 20221,777
Mar 20231,680
Jun 20231,696
Sept 20231,655
Dec 20231,454
Mar 20241,624
Jun 20241,537
Sept 20241,672
Dec 20241,621
Mar 20251,502
Jun 20251,442
Sept 20251,463
Dec 20251,418

Trend

-45Latest quarter change
+439Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation1,181
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only36
Contingency accommodation96

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,313
Homes for Ukraine
503
Afghan programme
76
Resettlement cumulative
105

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine503
Afghan programme76
Resettlement cumulative105

Population context

All pathways total1,892
Share of local population0.5%

Ethnic composition projection

Cardiff: White British 73.6% (2021) to 55.9% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Cardiff

021436485% of populationCensus 2021White British 56% in 2051White Other 9% in 2051Asian 15% in 2051Black 6% in 2051Mixed 7% in 2051Other 7% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Cardiff

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
80%
8%
2021
74%
10%
2026proj
70%
11%
2031proj
67%
12%
2036proj
64%
13%
2041proj
61%
8%
14%
2046proj
58%
9%
14%
2051proj
56%
9%
15%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 9.9% (2021) → 15.6% (2051). Christian 40.9% → 10.6%.

Religion: Cardiff

523405876%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 71% in 2051Muslim 16% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

16.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 91.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Cardiff

1231506989%Census 2021UK-born 52% in 2051Foreign-born 48% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Cardiff is changing

-6.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
0pp
Local migration
-0.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Cardiff on UK Demographics →