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Cardiff

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
Jo Stevens
Jo Stevens Labour · Cardiff East

4 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Cardiff.

1,418 people housed on asylum support in Cardiff

Rank 10 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 36.93 per 10,000 puts Cardiff in the 94th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 100 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £78M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Cardiff

£27.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.6Msubsistence payments/year
£1.7MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,418 people on asylum support in Cardiff (1.33% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Cardiff: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,418
1,777 1,185 592 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Dec 2022 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

-45 Latest quarter change
+439 Change across series
48 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 1,228
Initial accommodation 65
Subsistence only 25
Contingency accommodation 100

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,418
Homes for Ukraine
495
Afghan programme
76
Resettlement cumulative
105

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 495
Afghan programme 76
Resettlement cumulative 105

Population context

All pathways total 1,989
Share of local population 0.52%

Ethnic composition projection

Cardiff: WBI 73.6% (2021) → 55.9% (2051). 80% CI: 35.3–45.7%.

Ethnic composition: Cardiff

0 21 43 64 85 % of population Census 2021 White British 56% White Other 9% Asian 15% Black 6% Mixed 7% Other 7% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Cardiff

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
80%
8%
2021
74%
10%
2026 proj
70%
11%
2031 proj
67%
12%
2036 proj
64%
13%
2041 proj
61%
8%
14%
2046 proj
58%
9%
14%
2051 proj
56%
9%
15%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 9.9% (2021) → 15.6% (2051). Christian 40.9% → 10.6%.

Religion: Cardiff

5 23 40 58 76 % Census 2021 Christian 11% No religion 71% Muslim 16% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

16.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 91.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Cardiff

12 31 50 69 89 % Census 2021 UK-born 52% Foreign-born 48% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Cardiff is changing

-6.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
0pp
Local migration
-0.3pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Cardiff on UK Demographics →