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East of England

Chelmsford

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Marie Goldman
Marie GoldmanLiberal Democrats · Chelmsford
143 people on asylum support in Chelmsford

Rank 157 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 7.5 per 10,000 puts Chelmsford in the 55th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2060. 6 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 117 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 143 people at £107 per person per day is about £5.6M a year.

What asylum costs Chelmsford

£3.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£366Ksubsistence payments/year
£172KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 143 people on asylum support in Chelmsford(0.15% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Chelmsford: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

368
4623081540Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20143
Jun 20143
Sept 20142
Dec 20143
Mar 20152
Jun 20153
Sept 20153
Dec 20154
Mar 20163
Jun 20163
Sept 20165
Dec 20164
Mar 20174
Jun 20172
Jun 20202
Sept 20203
Dec 20203
Mar 20213
Jun 20213
Sept 20211
Dec 20215
Mar 20223
Jun 20224
Sept 20223
Dec 20224
Mar 20234
Jun 2023147
Sept 2023377
Dec 2023462
Mar 2024295
Jun 2024371
Sept 2024439
Dec 2024453
Mar 2025387
Jun 2025341
Sept 2025409
Dec 2025368

Trend

-41Latest quarter change
+365Change across series
37Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation20
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only6
Contingency accommodation117

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
143
Homes for Ukraine
335
Afghan programme
41
Resettlement cumulative
4

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine335
Afghan programme41
Resettlement cumulative4

Population context

All pathways total519
Share of local population0.27%

Ethnic composition projection

Chelmsford: White British 83.0% (2021) to 59.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2060. 80% CI: 58.9, 64.2%.

Ethnic composition: Chelmsford

024487195% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 49% in 2061White Other 9% in 2061Asian 15% in 2061Black 9% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Chelmsford

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
90%
2021
83%
2031proj
77%
2041proj
69%
8%
9%
2051proj
60%
9%
12%
9%
2061proj
49%
9%
15%
9%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Chelmsford ranges from54.5% to 68.7%by 2051. That is a 14.2pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.1% (2021) → 5.2% (2051). Christian 51.0% → 12.1%.

Religion: Chelmsford

019375675%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 70% in 2051Muslim 5% in 2051Hindu 11% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

11.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.39). 94.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Chelmsford

728507293%Census 2021UK-born 62% in 2051Foreign-born 39% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.1% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black16.5% internal, 3.4% international
asian13.6% internal, 5% international
other15.1% internal, 3.4% international
white other12.8% internal, 2.7% international
mixed13% internal, 0.8% international
white british8.2% internal, 0.2% international

Why Chelmsford is changing

-7.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
-0.1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Chelmsford on UK Demographics →