Trend
-41 Latest quarter change
+365 Change across series
37 Official data points
Chelmsford
Marie Goldman
246 people housed on asylum support in Chelmsford
Rank 121 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 13.03 per 10,000 puts Chelmsford in the 66th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2048. 227 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £13M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Chelmsford
£4.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£629Ksubsistence payments/year
£295KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 246 people on asylum support in Chelmsford (0.23% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Chelmsford: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 18
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 1
Contingency accommodation 227
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 329
Afghan programme 41
Resettlement cumulative 4
Population context
All pathways total 616
Share of local population 0.33%
Ethnic composition projection
Chelmsford: WBI 83.0% (2021) → 45.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 55.7–59.7%.
Ethnic composition: Chelmsford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Chelmsford
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Chelmsford ranges from 54.5% to 68.7% by 2051. That is a 14.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.1% (2021) → 5.2% (2051). Christian 51.0% → 12.1%.
Religion: Chelmsford
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
11.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.39). 94.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Chelmsford
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.1% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black 16.5% internal, 3.4% international
asian 13.6% internal, 5% international
other 15.1% internal, 3.4% international
white other 12.8% internal, 2.7% international
mixed 13% internal, 0.8% international
white british 8.2% internal, 0.2% international
Why Chelmsford is changing
-7.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Chelmsford on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.5%
Mixed 72.2%
White Other 75.8%
Other 69.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 72.9%
Mixed 52.6%
White Other 47.7%
Other 52.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.7%
Mixed 39.5%
White Other 48.6%
Other 53.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
246 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
13.03 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
227 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.