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East of England

Colchester

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Pam Cox
Pam CoxLabour · Colchester
302 people on asylum support in Colchester

Rank 101 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 15.01 per 10,000 puts Colchester in the 71st percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 12 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 302 people at £107 per person per day is about £11.8M a year.

What asylum costs Colchester

£6.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£772Ksubsistence payments/year
£362KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 302 people on asylum support in Colchester(0.32% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Colchester: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

316
3632421210Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20145
Jun 20145
Sept 20145
Dec 20147
Mar 20158
Jun 20155
Sept 20155
Dec 20156
Mar 20164
Jun 20164
Sept 20164
Dec 20164
Mar 20174
Jun 20174
Sept 20175
Dec 20176
Mar 20187
Jun 20186
Sept 20184
Dec 20185
Mar 20192
Jun 20195
Sept 20195
Dec 20195
Mar 20207
Jun 20208
Sept 20205
Dec 20207
Mar 202111
Jun 202111
Sept 202130
Dec 202176
Mar 2022100
Jun 2022202
Sept 2022127
Dec 2022226
Mar 2023228
Jun 2023363
Sept 2023335
Dec 2023187
Mar 2024235
Jun 2024218
Sept 2024232
Dec 2024228
Mar 2025282
Jun 2025294
Sept 2025286
Dec 2025316

Trend

+30Latest quarter change
+311Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation290
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only12
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
302
Homes for Ukraine
452
Afghan programme
149
Resettlement cumulative
64

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine452
Afghan programme149
Resettlement cumulative64

Population context

All pathways total903
Share of local population0.45%

Ethnic composition projection

Colchester: White British 80.7% (2021) to 61.5% (2051). 80% CI: 60, 65.8%.

Ethnic composition: Colchester

023466993% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 54% in 2061White Other 9% in 2061Asian 9% in 2061Black 9% in 2061Mixed 13% in 2061Other 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Colchester

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
88%
2021
81%
2031proj
76%
2041proj
69%
9%
2051proj
62%
9%
8%
9%
2061proj
54%
9%
9%
9%
13%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Colchester ranges from53.4% to 65.9%by 2051. That is a 12.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 58.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.2% (2021) → 2.9% (2051). Christian 47.4% → 12.7%.

Religion: Colchester

021426283%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 78% in 2051Hindu 5% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

14.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.44). 93.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Colchester

1030507091%Census 2021UK-born 42% in 2051Foreign-born 58% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.9% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
black21.5% internal, 3.3% international
asian17.4% internal, 5.6% international
other14.8% internal, 5.4% international
white other15.3% internal, 4.3% international
mixed15.4% internal, 1.7% international
white british9.5% internal, 0.3% international

Why Colchester is changing

-6.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.6pp
Local migration
+0.1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Colchester on UK Demographics →