Trend
+30 Latest quarter change
+311 Change across series
48 Official data points
Colchester
Pam Cox
317 people housed on asylum support in Colchester
Rank 98 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 15.83 per 10,000 puts Colchester in the 71st percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2050. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £17M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Colchester
£6.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£811Ksubsistence payments/year
£380KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 317 people on asylum support in Colchester (0.30% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Colchester: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 306
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 11
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 444
Afghan programme 147
Resettlement cumulative 64
Population context
All pathways total 908
Share of local population 0.45%
Ethnic composition projection
Colchester: WBI 80.7% (2021) → 49.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2050. 80% CI: 57.7–62.1%.
Ethnic composition: Colchester
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Colchester
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Colchester ranges from 53.4% to 65.9% by 2051. That is a 12.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 58.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.2% (2021) → 2.9% (2051). Christian 47.4% → 12.7%.
Religion: Colchester
Christian No religion Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
14.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.44). 93.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Colchester
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 10.9% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
black 21.5% internal, 3.3% international
asian 17.4% internal, 5.6% international
other 14.8% internal, 5.4% international
white other 15.3% internal, 4.3% international
mixed 15.4% internal, 1.7% international
white british 9.5% internal, 0.3% international
Why Colchester is changing
-6.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Colchester on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.5%
Mixed 65.5%
White Other 73.4%
Other 60.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.1%
Mixed 47.6%
White Other 44.6%
Other 41.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.9%
Mixed 35.7%
White Other 47%
Other 43.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
317 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
15.83 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.