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North East

County Durham

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Mary Kelly Foy
Mary Kelly FoyLabour · City of Durham

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping County Durham.

634 people on asylum support in County Durham

Rank 46 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 11.76 per 10,000 puts County Durham in the 64th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 15 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 634 people at £107 per person per day is about £24.8M a year.

What asylum costs County Durham

£14.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.6Msubsistence payments/year
£761KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 634 people on asylum support in County Durham(0.68% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

County Durham: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

566
5663771890Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20142
Jun 20142
Sept 20144
Dec 20143
Mar 20152
Sept 20162
Dec 20164
Mar 20174
Jun 20174
Sept 20173
Dec 201710
Mar 201810
Jun 20186
Sept 20187
Dec 20182
Mar 20193
Dec 20191
Mar 20201
Jun 20201
Sept 20202
Dec 20202
Mar 20212
Jun 20213
Sept 20211
Dec 20211
Mar 20221
Jun 20221
Sept 20222
Dec 20222
Mar 20236
Jun 202377
Sept 2023126
Dec 2023157
Mar 2024229
Jun 2024294
Sept 2024388
Dec 2024425
Mar 2025448
Jun 2025483
Sept 2025529
Dec 2025566

Trend

+37Latest quarter change
+564Change across series
41Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation619
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only15
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
634
Homes for Ukraine
781
Afghan programme
221
Resettlement cumulative
341

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine781
Afghan programme221
Resettlement cumulative341

Population context

All pathways total1,636
Share of local population0.3%

Ethnic composition projection

County Durham: White British 94.7% (2021) to 88.2% (2051).

Ethnic composition: County Durham

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 84% in 2061White Other 5% in 2061Mixed 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: County Durham

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
97%
2021
95%
2031proj
93%
2041proj
91%
2051proj
88%
2061proj
84%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in County Durham ranges from80.0% to 88.4%by 2051. That is a 8.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 83.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.6% (2021) → 0.7% (2051). Christian 57.6% → 8.7%.

Religion: County Durham

426497295%Census 2021Christian 9% in 2051No religion 90% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

4.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.16). 98.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: County Durham

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 83% in 2051Foreign-born 18% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
asian17.9% internal, 9.5% international
black21.4% internal, 4.9% international
other14.9% internal, 8.3% international
white other16.4% internal, 4.9% international
mixed17.5% internal, 2.1% international
white british8.5% internal, 0.2% international

Why County Durham is changing

-1.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+5.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View County Durham on UK Demographics →