Trend
+37 Latest quarter change
+564 Change across series
41 Official data points
County Durham
Mary Kelly Foy
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping County Durham.
592 people housed on asylum support in County Durham
Rank 52 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 11 per 10,000 puts County Durham in the 63rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £32M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs County Durham
£11.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.5Msubsistence payments/year
£710KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 592 people on asylum support in County Durham (0.55% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
County Durham: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 578
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 14
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 773
Afghan programme 229
Resettlement cumulative 341
Population context
All pathways total 1,594
Share of local population 0.3%
Ethnic composition projection
County Durham: WBI 94.7% (2021) → 88.7% (2051). 80% CI: 86.1–88.5%.
Ethnic composition: County Durham
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: County Durham
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in County Durham ranges from 80.0% to 88.4% by 2051. That is a 8.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 83.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.6% (2021) → 0.7% (2051). Christian 57.6% → 8.7%.
Religion: County Durham
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
4.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.16). 98.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: County Durham
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
asian 17.9% internal, 9.5% international
black 21.4% internal, 4.9% international
other 14.9% internal, 8.3% international
white other 16.4% internal, 4.9% international
mixed 17.5% internal, 2.1% international
white british 8.5% internal, 0.2% international
Why County Durham is changing
-1.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View County Durham on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.1%
Mixed 49.7%
White Other 64.6%
Other 50.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 63.3%
Mixed 43.3%
White Other 46.6%
Other 37.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 33.2%
White Other 46.2%
Other 47.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 72,696 pupils. 90.9% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 90.9%
White Other 2.7%
Mixed 2.1%
Asian 1.9%
Black 1.6%
Other 0.8%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
9.1% Minority pupils now
19.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
90.2% Primary WBI
91.5% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.53pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 93.9% vs school 90.9% (-3pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
82.4 crimes per 1,000 residents (56th percentile). Down 1.5% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
82.4 Per 1,000 residents
534 Hate crimes
30.1 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 388 per 10,000 pupils (44th percentile). 5-year growth: +39.4%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
6,842 Total EHCPs
27.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £564 per capita (68th percentile).
£564 Gross spend per capita
388 Residential per 10k 65+
18.8 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
4,218 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 55.7/100.
11.0 Asylum rate /10k
-0.18pp WB annual change
82.4 Crime /1,000
+39.4% SEND 5yr growth
£564 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
592 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
11 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.