Trend
-2 Latest quarter change
+398 Change across series
47 Official data points
Crawley
Peter Lamb
304 people housed on asylum support in Crawley
Rank 104 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 24.51 per 10,000 puts Crawley in the 86th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2033. 298 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £17M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Crawley
£6.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£777Ksubsistence payments/year
£365KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 304 people on asylum support in Crawley (0.28% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Crawley: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 0
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 6
Contingency accommodation 298
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 340
Afghan programme 396
Resettlement cumulative 67
Population context
All pathways total 1,040
Share of local population 0.84%
Ethnic composition projection
Crawley: WBI 61.8% (2021) → 31.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2033. 80% CI: 29.8–33.6%.
Ethnic composition: Crawley
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Crawley
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Crawley ranges from 34.8% to 46.0% by 2051. That is a 11.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 39.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 10.3% (2021) → 17.0% (2051). Christian 45.2% → 14.8%.
Religion: Crawley
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
26.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.67). 84.3% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Crawley
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.3% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
white other 16.5% internal, 2.5% international
other 13.1% internal, 2.2% international
black 12.2% internal, 2.1% international
mixed 12.3% internal, 0.9% international
asian 8.1% internal, 1.8% international
white british 7.7% internal, 0.2% international
Why Crawley is changing
-10.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Crawley on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 69.1%
White Other 83.1%
Other 66%
Homeownership rate
White British 60.4%
Mixed 36.5%
White Other 39.1%
Other 38.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.3%
Mixed 28.7%
White Other 34.4%
Other 30.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
304 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
24.51 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
298 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.