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East of England

Dacorum

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
365 people housed on asylum support in Dacorum

Rank 86 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 22.61 per 10,000 puts Dacorum in the 84th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2051. 315 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £20M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Dacorum

£7.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£933Ksubsistence payments/year
£438KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 365 people on asylum support in Dacorum (0.34% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Dacorum: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

464
615 410 205 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Sept 2024 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

-81 Latest quarter change
+463 Change across series
45 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 47
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 315

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
365
Homes for Ukraine
424
Afghan programme
71
Resettlement cumulative
34

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 424
Afghan programme 71
Resettlement cumulative 34

Population context

All pathways total 860
Share of local population 0.53%

Ethnic composition projection

Dacorum: WBI 78.7% (2021) → 49.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2051. 80% CI: 48–52.2%.

Ethnic composition: Dacorum

0 23 45 68 91 % of population Census 2021 Illustrative White British 38% White Other 36% Asian 8% Black 5% Mixed 12% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Dacorum

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
86%
2021
79%
8%
2031 proj
71%
12%
2041 proj
61%
18%
2051 proj
50%
27%
8%
9%
2061 proj
38%
36%
8%
12%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Dacorum ranges from 49.5% to 64.0% by 2051. That is a 14.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.3% (2021) → 6.5% (2051). Christian 49.4% → 15.7%.

Religion: Dacorum

0 20 39 59 79 % Census 2021 Christian 16% No religion 74% Muslim 6% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

14.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 93.8% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Dacorum

9 30 50 70 91 % Census 2021 UK-born 43% Foreign-born 57% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.5% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
white other 13.9% internal, 2.4% international
other 12.8% internal, 3.5% international
mixed 11.8% internal, 0.6% international
black 11.2% internal, 1.2% international
asian 9.5% internal, 1.9% international
white british 7.6% internal, 0.3% international

Why Dacorum is changing

-7.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.5pp
Local migration
-0.4pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Dacorum on UK Demographics →