Trend
+6 Latest quarter change
+224 Change across series
43 Official data points
Darlington
Lola McEvoy
228 people housed on asylum support in Darlington
Rank 130 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 20.27 per 10,000 puts Darlington in the 81st percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £12M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Darlington
£4.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£583Ksubsistence payments/year
£274KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 228 people on asylum support in Darlington (0.21% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Darlington: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 226
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 166
Afghan programme 22
Resettlement cumulative 61
Population context
All pathways total 416
Share of local population 0.37%
Ethnic composition projection
Darlington: WBI 90.3% (2021) → 76.1% (2051). 80% CI: 68.7–72.8%.
Ethnic composition: Darlington
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Darlington
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Darlington ranges from 51.6% to 73.6% by 2051. That is a 22pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 59.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.8% (2021) → 5.0% (2051). Christian 54.8% → 11.2%.
Religion: Darlington
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
7.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 95.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Darlington
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black 18% internal, 6.6% international
white other 16.1% internal, 2.5% international
other 11.5% internal, 3.1% international
asian 10% internal, 4.3% international
mixed 12.5% internal, 0.9% international
white british 8.5% internal, 0.2% international
Why Darlington is changing
-3.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Darlington on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.6%
Mixed 69.5%
White Other 75.3%
Other 58.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 64.5%
Mixed 49.1%
White Other 38.1%
Other 34.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 28.6%
Mixed 37.4%
White Other 33.7%
Other 32.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 16,038 pupils. 80.5% White British. Schools are 9.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 80.5%
White Other 6.6%
Asian 4.9%
Black 3.5%
Mixed 3.3%
Other 1.3%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
19.5% Minority pupils now
28.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
78.4% Primary WBI
82.7% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.11pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 87% vs school 80.5% (-6.5pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
228 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.27 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.