asylumstats Follow YOUR money
East Midlands

Derby

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
Catherine Atkinson
Catherine Atkinson Labour · Derby North

7 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Derby.

1,106 people housed on asylum support in Derby

Rank 20 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 40.34 per 10,000 puts Derby in the 95th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2035. 99 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £61M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Derby

£21.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.8Msubsistence payments/year
£1.3MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,106 people on asylum support in Derby (1.03% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Derby: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,215
1,376 917 459 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Sept 2023 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

-120 Latest quarter change
+757 Change across series
48 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 796
Initial accommodation 192
Subsistence only 19
Contingency accommodation 99

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,106
Homes for Ukraine
282
Afghan programme
31
Resettlement cumulative
4

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 282
Afghan programme 31
Resettlement cumulative 4

Population context

All pathways total 1,419
Share of local population 0.52%

Ethnic composition projection

Derby: WBI 66.2% (2021) → 28.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2035. 80% CI: 28.5–32.4%.

Ethnic composition: Derby

0 20 40 60 80 % of population Census 2021 Illustrative White British 16% White Other 13% Asian 16% Black 10% Mixed 6% Other 39% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Derby

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
75%
13%
2021
66%
16%
2031 proj
55%
10%
18%
2041 proj
42%
13%
20%
13%
2051 proj
28%
14%
19%
9%
23%
2061 proj
16%
13%
16%
10%
39%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Derby ranges from 43.7% to 51.3% by 2051. That is a 7.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 46.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 11.9% (2021) → 23.7% (2051). Christian 42.9% → 12.2%.

Religion: Derby

0 16 32 48 63 % Census 2021 Christian 12% No religion 58% Muslim 24% Sikh 3% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim Sikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

19.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.62). 87% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Derby

15 32 50 68 85 % Census 2021 UK-born 47% Foreign-born 53% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 9% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
white other 12.5% internal, 2.9% international
black 11.8% internal, 2.6% international
other 9.9% internal, 2.3% international
mixed 11.1% internal, 0.7% international
asian 8% internal, 1.9% international
white british 8.5% internal, 0.2% international

Why Derby is changing

-9.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.4pp
Local migration
-3.1pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Derby on UK Demographics →