Trend
-9 Latest quarter change
+541 Change across series
48 Official data points
Dudley
Sonia Kumar
663 people housed on asylum support in Dudley
Rank 42 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 19.97 per 10,000 puts Dudley in the 80th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2051. 41 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £36M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Dudley
£13.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£796KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 663 people on asylum support in Dudley (0.62% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Dudley: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 607
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 15
Contingency accommodation 41
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 165
Afghan programme 149
Resettlement cumulative 95
Population context
All pathways total 977
Share of local population 0.29%
Ethnic composition projection
Dudley: WBI 82.4% (2021) → 50.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2051. 80% CI: 53.7–57.2%.
Ethnic composition: Dudley
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Dudley
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Dudley ranges from 59.8% to 69.4% by 2051. That is a 9.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 6.5% (2021) → 10.1% (2051). Christian 52.2% → 10.3%.
Religion: Dudley
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
7.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.4). 95.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Dudley
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.5% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
white other 12% internal, 2.3% international
black 10.1% internal, 1.6% international
other 9.3% internal, 2% international
mixed 9.5% internal, 0.3% international
asian 6% internal, 1.5% international
white british 6.1% internal, 0.1% international
Why Dudley is changing
-6.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Dudley on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.4%
Mixed 68.3%
White Other 70.5%
Other 53.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 68.1%
Mixed 39.8%
White Other 44.7%
Other 44.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.6%
Mixed 28.1%
White Other 35.3%
Other 27.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 47,488 pupils. 69.6% White British. Schools are 12.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 69.6%
Asian 12%
Mixed 8.7%
Black 4.6%
White Other 2.9%
Other 2.2%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
30.4% Minority pupils now
45.8% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
69.5% Primary WBI
69.7% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.78pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 73% vs school 69.6% (-3.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
663 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
19.97 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
41 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in West Midlands by supported asylum.