Trend
-74 Latest quarter change
+161 Change across series
47 Official data points
Epping Forest
Dr Neil Hudson
128 people housed on asylum support in Epping Forest
Rank 165 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.31 per 10,000 puts Epping Forest in the 59th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2044. 100 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £7M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Epping Forest
£2.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£327Ksubsistence payments/year
£154KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 128 people on asylum support in Epping Forest (0.12% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. 2 known hotel sites in this area. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Epping Forest: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 22
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 6
Contingency accommodation 100
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 425
Afghan programme 39
Resettlement cumulative 27
Population context
All pathways total 592
Share of local population 0.43%
Ethnic composition projection
Epping Forest: WBI 75.6% (2021) → 41.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2044. 80% CI: 42.4–46.4%.
Ethnic composition: Epping Forest
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Epping Forest
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Epping Forest ranges from 44.4% to 59.2% by 2051. That is a 14.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 49.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 3.7% (2021) → 12.1% (2051). Christian 52.6% → 14.7%.
Religion: Epping Forest
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
13.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 94% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Epping Forest
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
white other 12.8% internal, 1.9% international
other 10.9% internal, 2.1% international
mixed 11.7% internal, 0.2% international
black 10.4% internal, 1.1% international
asian 9.2% internal, 0.9% international
white british 7% internal, 0.2% international
Why Epping Forest is changing
-9.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Epping Forest on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.3%
Mixed 71.7%
White Other 75.6%
Other 69.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 71.8%
Mixed 58.3%
White Other 57%
Other 70.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.5%
Mixed 37.6%
White Other 46.3%
Other 44.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
128 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
9.31 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
100 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.