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East of England

Epping Forest

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Neil Hudson
Dr Neil HudsonConservative · Epping Forest
81 people on asylum support in Epping Forest

Rank 192 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 5.85 per 10,000 puts Epping Forest in the 48th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2050. 5 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 39 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 81 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.2M a year.

What asylum costs Epping Forest

£1.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£207Ksubsistence payments/year
£97KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 81 people on asylum support in Epping Forest(0.09% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. 2 known hotel sites in this area.

Epping Forest: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

173
3242161080Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201412
Jun 201413
Sept 201412
Dec 201413
Mar 201513
Jun 201511
Sept 201510
Dec 201511
Mar 201611
Jun 201615
Sept 201615
Dec 201615
Mar 201714
Jun 20178
Sept 20177
Dec 20178
Mar 201812
Jun 20185
Sept 20184
Mar 20194
Jun 20195
Sept 20199
Dec 201910
Mar 202015
Jun 202017
Sept 202015
Dec 202018
Mar 202119
Jun 202116
Sept 202120
Dec 202126
Mar 202227
Jun 202225
Sept 202225
Dec 2022248
Mar 2023271
Jun 2023323
Sept 2023324
Dec 2023267
Mar 2024234
Jun 2024116
Sept 2024197
Dec 2024148
Mar 202557
Jun 2025223
Sept 2025247
Dec 2025173

Trend

-74Latest quarter change
+161Change across series
47Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation37
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only5
Contingency accommodation39

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
81
Homes for Ukraine
440
Afghan programme
39
Resettlement cumulative
27

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine440
Afghan programme39
Resettlement cumulative27

Population context

All pathways total560
Share of local population0.4%

Ethnic composition projection

Epping Forest: White British 75.6% (2021) to 49.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2050. 80% CI: 48.2, 53.4%.

Ethnic composition: Epping Forest

023456890% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 39% in 2061White Other 14% in 2061Asian 13% in 2061Black 5% in 2061Mixed 17% in 2061Other 12% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Epping Forest

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
85%
2021
76%
9%
2031proj
68%
11%
9%
2041proj
59%
12%
11%
8%
2051proj
49%
13%
12%
12%
9%
2061proj
39%
14%
13%
17%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Epping Forest ranges from44.4% to 59.2%by 2051. That is a 14.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 49.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.7% (2021) → 12.1% (2051). Christian 52.6% → 14.7%.

Religion: Epping Forest

017345168%Census 2021Christian 15% in 2051No religion 63% in 2051Muslim 12% in 2051Hindu 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

13.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 94% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Epping Forest

929507191%Census 2021UK-born 57% in 2051Foreign-born 43% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
white other12.8% internal, 1.9% international
other10.9% internal, 2.1% international
mixed11.7% internal, 0.2% international
black10.4% internal, 1.1% international
asian9.2% internal, 0.9% international
white british7% internal, 0.2% international

Why Epping Forest is changing

-9.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
-2.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Epping Forest on UK Demographics →