Trend
-34 Latest quarter change
+443 Change across series
48 Official data points
Gateshead
Mark Ferguson
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Gateshead.
639 people housed on asylum support in Gateshead
Rank 46 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 31.52 per 10,000 puts Gateshead in the 91st percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £35M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Gateshead
£12.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.6Msubsistence payments/year
£767KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 639 people on asylum support in Gateshead (0.60% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Gateshead: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 628
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 11
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 203
Afghan programme 202
Resettlement cumulative 515
Population context
All pathways total 1,044
Share of local population 0.51%
Ethnic composition projection
Gateshead: WBI 90.3% (2021) → 65.3% (2051). 80% CI: 64.3–69.8%.
Ethnic composition: Gateshead
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Gateshead
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Gateshead ranges from 61.7% to 77.3% by 2051. That is a 15.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 67.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.2% (2021) → 7.2% (2051). Christian 53.1% → 9.5%.
Religion: Gateshead
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
7.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.26). 95.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Gateshead
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black 14.7% internal, 5% international
white other 12.8% internal, 4.1% international
other 12.2% internal, 3.3% international
asian 12.1% internal, 2.6% international
mixed 12.8% internal, 1.3% international
white british 7.5% internal, 0.2% international
Why Gateshead is changing
-3.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Gateshead on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.2%
Mixed 67.1%
White Other 76.3%
Other 47.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.6%
Mixed 39.2%
White Other 38%
Other 25.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 27.2%
Mixed 40.5%
White Other 45.8%
Other 30.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 28,439 pupils. 79.9% White British. Schools are 10.4pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 79.9%
Asian 4.8%
Black 4.6%
White Other 3.8%
Other 3.5%
Mixed 3.4%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
20.1% Minority pupils now
26.7% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
78.9% Primary WBI
80.7% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.8pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 85.3% vs school 79.9% (-5.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
639 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
31.52 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.