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South West

Gloucester

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
Alex McIntyre
Alex McIntyre Labour · Gloucester
316 people housed on asylum support in Gloucester

Rank 99 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 22.8 per 10,000 puts Gloucester in the 85th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2056. 73 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £17M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Gloucester

£6.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£808Ksubsistence payments/year
£379KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 316 people on asylum support in Gloucester (0.30% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Gloucester: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

388
479 319 160 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Sept 2023 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

-17 Latest quarter change
+297 Change across series
48 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 232
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 11
Contingency accommodation 73

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
316
Homes for Ukraine
232
Afghan programme
90
Resettlement cumulative
152

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 232
Afghan programme 90
Resettlement cumulative 152

Population context

All pathways total 638
Share of local population 0.46%

Ethnic composition projection

Gloucester: WBI 78.0% (2021) → 54.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2056. 80% CI: 49.9–54.4%.

Ethnic composition: Gloucester

0 22 45 67 90 % of population Census 2021 Illustrative White British 45% White Other 21% Asian 12% Black 11% Mixed 9% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Gloucester

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
85%
2021
78%
2031 proj
72%
10%
8%
2041 proj
64%
14%
10%
2051 proj
55%
17%
11%
8%
2061 proj
45%
21%
12%
11%
9%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Gloucester ranges from 47.1% to 62.3% by 2051. That is a 15.2pp spread.

Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 5.0% (2021) → 8.2% (2051). Christian 50.7% → 11.8%.

Religion: Gloucester

0 20 41 61 82 % Census 2021 Christian 12% No religion 77% Muslim 8% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

14.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.48). 92% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Gloucester

9 30 50 70 91 % Census 2021 UK-born 56% Foreign-born 44% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.2% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
white other 12.9% internal, 2.2% international
other 12.8% internal, 1.6% international
black 11% internal, 1.5% international
asian 9.7% internal, 2.1% international
mixed 10.3% internal, 0.3% international
white british 8.6% internal, 0.2% international

Why Gloucester is changing

-6.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
+0.2pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Gloucester on UK Demographics →