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South West

Gloucester

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Alex McIntyre
Alex McIntyreLabour · Gloucester
290 people on asylum support in Gloucester

Rank 103 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 20.93 per 10,000 puts Gloucester in the 83rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2057. 12 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 57 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 290 people at £107 per person per day is about £11.3M a year.

What asylum costs Gloucester

£6.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£742Ksubsistence payments/year
£348KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 290 people on asylum support in Gloucester(0.31% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Gloucester: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

388
4793191600Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201491
Jun 201489
Sept 201499
Dec 201497
Mar 2015108
Jun 2015110
Sept 2015108
Dec 2015112
Mar 2016119
Jun 2016120
Sept 2016121
Dec 2016121
Mar 2017113
Jun 2017106
Sept 201798
Dec 2017106
Mar 2018122
Jun 2018118
Sept 2018108
Dec 2018123
Mar 2019106
Jun 2019131
Sept 2019127
Dec 2019114
Mar 2020124
Jun 2020123
Sept 2020126
Dec 2020123
Mar 2021119
Jun 2021128
Sept 2021126
Dec 2021132
Mar 2022140
Jun 2022144
Sept 2022189
Dec 2022466
Mar 2023458
Jun 2023463
Sept 2023479
Dec 2023413
Mar 2024429
Jun 2024372
Sept 2024379
Dec 2024384
Mar 2025353
Jun 2025336
Sept 2025405
Dec 2025388

Trend

-17Latest quarter change
+297Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation221
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only12
Contingency accommodation57

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
290
Homes for Ukraine
242
Afghan programme
90
Resettlement cumulative
152

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine242
Afghan programme90
Resettlement cumulative152

Population context

All pathways total622
Share of local population0.45%

Ethnic composition projection

Gloucester: White British 78.0% (2021) to 55.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2057. 80% CI: 54.9, 60.6%.

Ethnic composition: Gloucester

022456790% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 46% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Asian 13% in 2061Black 7% in 2061Mixed 14% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Gloucester

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
85%
2021
78%
2031proj
72%
9%
8%
2041proj
64%
10%
10%
2051proj
55%
12%
12%
10%
2061proj
46%
12%
13%
14%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Gloucester ranges from47.1% to 62.3%by 2051. That is a 15.2pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 5.0% (2021) → 8.2% (2051). Christian 50.7% → 11.8%.

Religion: Gloucester

020416182%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 77% in 2051Muslim 8% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

14.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.48). 92% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Gloucester

930507091%Census 2021UK-born 56% in 2051Foreign-born 44% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.2% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
white other12.9% internal, 2.2% international
other12.8% internal, 1.6% international
black11% internal, 1.5% international
asian9.7% internal, 2.1% international
mixed10.3% internal, 0.3% international
white british8.6% internal, 0.2% international

Why Gloucester is changing

-6.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
+0.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Gloucester on UK Demographics →