Trend
-26 Latest quarter change
+272 Change across series
48 Official data points
Hartlepool
Mr Jonathan Brash
403 people housed on asylum support in Hartlepool
Rank 80 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 41.05 per 10,000 puts Hartlepool in the 95th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £22M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Hartlepool
£7.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.0Msubsistence payments/year
£484KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 403 people on asylum support in Hartlepool (0.38% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Hartlepool: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 403
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 110
Afghan programme 182
Resettlement cumulative 218
Population context
All pathways total 695
Share of local population 0.71%
Ethnic composition projection
Hartlepool: WBI 95.0% (2021) → 91.8% (2051). 80% CI: 83.3–85.7%.
Ethnic composition: Hartlepool
White British 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Hartlepool
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Hartlepool ranges from 52.9% to 78.6% by 2051. That is a 25.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 61.7% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.4% (2021) → 2.6% (2051). Christian 55.4% → 8.4%.
Religion: Hartlepool
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.15). 97.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Hartlepool
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.5% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black 25.6% internal, 5.8% international
mixed 15.6% internal, 1.8% international
other 11% internal, 4.5% international
white other 10.5% internal, 4.6% international
asian 9.3% internal, 2.1% international
white british 8.3% internal, 0.1% international
Why Hartlepool is changing
-1.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Hartlepool on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.5%
Mixed 53.3%
White Other 66.5%
Other 38.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.3%
Mixed 38.7%
White Other 40.3%
Other 30.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.6%
Mixed 30.3%
White Other 35.3%
Other 22.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 14,975 pupils. 88.5% White British. Schools are 6.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 88.5%
Black 3.2%
Asian 3%
White Other 2.1%
Mixed 1.9%
Other 1.1%
What this means
Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
11.5% Minority pupils now
15.6% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
88% Primary WBI
89% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.7pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 92.6% vs school 88.5% (-4.1pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
403 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
41.05 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.