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East of England

Luton

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sarah Owen
Sarah OwenLabour · Luton North

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Luton.

377 people on asylum support in Luton

Rank 82 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 15.95 per 10,000 puts Luton in the 73rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 38 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 194 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 377 people at £107 per person per day is about £14.7M a year.

What asylum costs Luton

£8.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£964Ksubsistence payments/year
£452KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 377 people on asylum support in Luton(0.40% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Luton: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

710
1,2178114060Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201442
Jun 201443
Sept 201448
Dec 201467
Mar 201577
Jun 201573
Sept 201573
Dec 201575
Mar 201669
Jun 201668
Sept 201672
Dec 201674
Mar 201789
Jun 2017105
Sept 2017129
Dec 2017135
Mar 2018143
Jun 2018170
Sept 2018161
Dec 2018138
Mar 2019146
Jun 2019146
Sept 2019133
Dec 2019133
Mar 2020157
Jun 2020163
Sept 2020185
Dec 2020206
Mar 2021202
Jun 2021201
Sept 2021249
Dec 2021323
Mar 2022309
Jun 2022352
Sept 2022352
Dec 20221,217
Mar 20231,159
Jun 20231,204
Sept 20231,131
Dec 20231,015
Mar 2024839
Jun 2024706
Sept 2024809
Dec 2024860
Mar 2025860
Jun 2025760
Sept 2025768
Dec 2025710

Trend

-58Latest quarter change
+668Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation145
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only38
Contingency accommodation194

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
377
Homes for Ukraine
279
Afghan programme
89
Resettlement cumulative
3

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine279
Afghan programme89
Resettlement cumulative3

Population context

All pathways total745
Share of local population0.32%

Ethnic composition projection

Luton: White British 31.8% (2021) to 7.8% (2051). 80% CI: 7.3, 8.8%.

Ethnic composition: Luton

014284256% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 4% in 2061White Other 15% in 2061Asian 51% in 2061Black 7% in 2061Mixed 10% in 2061Other 13% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Luton

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
45%
10%
30%
12%
2021
32%
13%
37%
10%
2031proj
21%
15%
43%
10%
2041proj
13%
16%
47%
9%
2051proj
16%
50%
8%
10%
2061proj
15%
51%
10%
13%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Luton ranges from16.8% to 19.5%by 2051. That is a 2.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 17.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 35.1% (2021) → 62.8% (2051). Christian 40.3% → 15.4%.

Religion: Luton

017345168%Census 2021Christian 15% in 2051No religion 17% in 2051Muslim 63% in 2051Hindu 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

38.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.83). 76.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Luton

2135506579%Census 2021UK-born 26% in 2051Foreign-born 74% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.3% moved within UK, 1.7% arrived from abroad
white other14% internal, 2.8% international
other11.9% internal, 3.2% international
black9.8% internal, 2.1% international
mixed9.2% internal, 0.9% international
asian7.1% internal, 2.3% international
white british6.1% internal, 0.2% international

Why Luton is changing

-12.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+2.8pp
Local migration
-9.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Luton on UK Demographics →