Trend
-58 Latest quarter change
+668 Change across series
48 Official data points
Luton
Sarah Owen
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Luton.
461 people housed on asylum support in Luton
Rank 66 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 19.28 per 10,000 puts Luton in the 79th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 249 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £25M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Luton
£9.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.2Msubsistence payments/year
£553KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 461 people on asylum support in Luton (0.43% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Luton: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 179
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 33
Contingency accommodation 249
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 263
Afghan programme 79
Resettlement cumulative 3
Population context
All pathways total 803
Share of local population 0.34%
Ethnic composition projection
Luton: WBI 31.8% (2021) → 4.8% (2051). 80% CI: 5.7–6.7%.
Ethnic composition: Luton
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Luton
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Luton ranges from 16.8% to 19.5% by 2051. That is a 2.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 17.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 35.1% (2021) → 62.8% (2051). Christian 40.3% → 15.4%.
Religion: Luton
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
38.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.83). 76.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Luton
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.3% moved within UK, 1.7% arrived from abroad
white other 14% internal, 2.8% international
other 11.9% internal, 3.2% international
black 9.8% internal, 2.1% international
mixed 9.2% internal, 0.9% international
asian 7.1% internal, 2.3% international
white british 6.1% internal, 0.2% international
Why Luton is changing
-12.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Luton on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.9%
Mixed 67.7%
White Other 75.1%
Other 62.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.3%
Mixed 37.3%
White Other 35.2%
Other 41.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.9%
Mixed 30.6%
White Other 28.9%
Other 33.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 40,831 pupils. 14.6% White British. Schools are 17.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 48.7%
White British 14.6%
White Other 12.9%
Black 12.1%
Mixed 9.1%
Other 2.5%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
85.4% Minority pupils now
92% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
13.6% Primary WBI
16% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.92pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 20.4% vs school 14.6% (-5.8pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
461 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
19.28 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
249 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East of England by supported asylum.