Trend
-3 Latest quarter change
+168 Change across series
29 Official data points
Mansfield
Steve Yemm
193 people housed on asylum support in Mansfield
Rank 146 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 17.06 per 10,000 puts Mansfield in the 73rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2059. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £11M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Mansfield
£3.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£494Ksubsistence payments/year
£232KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 193 people on asylum support in Mansfield (0.18% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Mansfield: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 185
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 8
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 175
Afghan programme 46
Resettlement cumulative 49
Population context
All pathways total 414
Share of local population 0.37%
Ethnic composition projection
Mansfield: WBI 87.3% (2021) → 60.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2059. 80% CI: 57.5–62.7%.
Ethnic composition: Mansfield
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Mansfield
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Mansfield ranges from 49.8% to 70.1% by 2051. That is a 20.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 57.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.2% (2021) → 4.9% (2051). Christian 49.2% → 10.5%.
Religion: Mansfield
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
10.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.3). 92.2% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Mansfield
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.9% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black 18.2% internal, 3.3% international
other 14.5% internal, 5.5% international
asian 13.1% internal, 6.1% international
white other 14.6% internal, 3% international
mixed 12.5% internal, 1.4% international
white british 7% internal, 0.1% international
Why Mansfield is changing
-5.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Mansfield on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.7%
Mixed 68.7%
White Other 83.1%
Other 67.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.1%
Mixed 50.1%
White Other 32.1%
Other 39.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 21.7%
Mixed 30.6%
White Other 25.4%
Other 28%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
193 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
17.06 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East Midlands by supported asylum.