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South East

Medway

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
346 people on asylum support in Medway

Rank 91 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 11.82 per 10,000 puts Medway in the 65th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2051. 12 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 346 people at £107 per person per day is about £13.5M a year.

What asylum costs Medway

£7.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£885Ksubsistence payments/year
£415KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 346 people on asylum support in Medway(0.37% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Medway: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

252
252168840Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20143
Jun 20143
Sept 20144
Dec 20145
Mar 20155
Jun 20155
Sept 20155
Dec 20155
Mar 20166
Jun 20167
Sept 20167
Dec 20164
Mar 20173
Jun 20172
Sept 20172
Dec 20174
Mar 20184
Jun 20183
Sept 20187
Dec 20185
Mar 20196
Jun 20196
Sept 20197
Dec 20198
Mar 20208
Jun 20209
Sept 202010
Dec 202012
Mar 202111
Jun 202115
Sept 202110
Dec 202110
Mar 202215
Jun 202212
Sept 202215
Dec 202215
Mar 202314
Jun 202328
Sept 202362
Dec 202385
Mar 2024102
Jun 2024121
Sept 2024167
Dec 2024194
Mar 2025195
Jun 2025187
Sept 2025211
Dec 2025252

Trend

+41Latest quarter change
+249Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation334
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only12
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
346
Homes for Ukraine
497
Afghan programme
100
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine497
Afghan programme100
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total943
Share of local population0.32%

Ethnic composition projection

Medway: White British 78.3% (2021) to 49.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2051. 80% CI: 48.7, 54.2%.

Ethnic composition: Medway

023456891% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 38% in 2061White Other 11% in 2061Asian 8% in 2061Black 24% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Medway

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
86%
2021
78%
2031proj
71%
9%
2041proj
61%
9%
13%
2051proj
50%
11%
18%
9%
2061proj
38%
11%
24%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Medway ranges from56.3% to 65.6%by 2051. That is a 9.3pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.9% (2021) → 4.6% (2051). Christian 47.7% → 13.3%.

Religion: Medway

021426384%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 79% in 2051Muslim 5% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

13.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.47). 93.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Medway

929507191%Census 2021UK-born 57% in 2051Foreign-born 43% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black16% internal, 2.4% international
white other13.5% internal, 2.3% international
other13% internal, 2.3% international
mixed12% internal, 0.6% international
asian9% internal, 2.7% international
white british7.9% internal, 0.2% international

Why Medway is changing

-7.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
-0.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Medway on UK Demographics →