Trend
+41 Latest quarter change
+249 Change across series
48 Official data points
Medway
316 people housed on asylum support in Medway
Rank 100 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 10.8 per 10,000 puts Medway in the 62nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2044. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £17M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Medway
£6.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£808Ksubsistence payments/year
£379KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 316 people on asylum support in Medway (0.30% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Medway: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 305
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 11
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 477
Afghan programme 105
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 898
Share of local population 0.31%
Ethnic composition projection
Medway: WBI 78.3% (2021) → 37.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2044. 80% CI: 44.8–48.8%.
Ethnic composition: Medway
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Medway
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Medway ranges from 56.3% to 65.6% by 2051. That is a 9.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.9% (2021) → 4.6% (2051). Christian 47.7% → 13.3%.
Religion: Medway
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
13.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.47). 93.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Medway
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black 16% internal, 2.4% international
white other 13.5% internal, 2.3% international
other 13% internal, 2.3% international
mixed 12% internal, 0.6% international
asian 9% internal, 2.7% international
white british 7.9% internal, 0.2% international
Why Medway is changing
-7.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Medway on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.2%
Mixed 67.3%
White Other 74.2%
Other 63.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.6%
Mixed 54.7%
White Other 49.1%
Other 53.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.6%
Mixed 31%
White Other 37%
Other 34.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 50,337 pupils. 62.6% White British. Schools are 15.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 62.6%
Black 14.4%
Mixed 7.6%
White Other 7.3%
Asian 6.7%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 16pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
37.4% Minority pupils now
49.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
63.1% Primary WBI
61.4% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.41pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 72.6% vs school 62.6% (-10pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
316 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
10.8 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.