Trend
-138 Latest quarter change
+445 Change across series
41 Official data points
Mid Sussex
Alison Bennett
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Mid Sussex.
366 people housed on asylum support in Mid Sussex
Rank 85 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 22.63 per 10,000 puts Mid Sussex in the 84th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 361 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £20M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Mid Sussex
£7.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£936Ksubsistence payments/year
£439KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 366 people on asylum support in Mid Sussex (0.34% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Mid Sussex: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 4
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 1
Contingency accommodation 361
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 591
Afghan programme 125
Resettlement cumulative 42
Population context
All pathways total 1,082
Share of local population 0.67%
Ethnic composition projection
Mid Sussex: WBI 85.9% (2021) → 74.1% (2051). 80% CI: 68.5–71.9%.
Ethnic composition: Mid Sussex
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Mid Sussex
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Mid Sussex ranges from 54.8% to 72.2% by 2051. That is a 17.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 61.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 2.0% (2051). Christian 51.2% → 10.8%.
Religion: Mid Sussex
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
11.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.33). 96% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Mid Sussex
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.2% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
other 12.8% internal, 4.2% international
white other 13.3% internal, 2.8% international
black 14.1% internal, 1.7% international
asian 10.9% internal, 3.9% international
mixed 12% internal, 1% international
white british 8.7% internal, 0.4% international
Why Mid Sussex is changing
-4.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Mid Sussex on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.4%
Mixed 73.1%
White Other 75.6%
Other 71.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 75.4%
Mixed 64.6%
White Other 56.6%
Other 54.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 37.3%
Mixed 44%
White Other 53.6%
Other 51%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
366 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
22.63 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
361 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South East by supported asylum.