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North East

Middlesbrough

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Andy McDonald
Andy McDonaldLabour · Middlesbrough and Thornaby East

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Middlesbrough.

671 people on asylum support in Middlesbrough

Rank 38 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 43.92 per 10,000 puts Middlesbrough in the 98th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2053. 20 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 671 people at £107 per person per day is about £26.2M a year.

What asylum costs Middlesbrough

£15.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£805KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 671 people on asylum support in Middlesbrough(0.72% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Middlesbrough: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

699
9176113060Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2015Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014819
Jun 2014799
Sept 2014776
Dec 2014749
Mar 2015765
Jun 2015746
Sept 2015802
Dec 2015917
Mar 2016831
Jun 2016757
Sept 2016642
Dec 2016589
Mar 2017543
Jun 2017508
Sept 2017509
Dec 2017560
Mar 2018676
Jun 2018659
Sept 2018681
Dec 2018729
Mar 2019731
Jun 2019718
Sept 2019663
Dec 2019604
Mar 2020584
Jun 2020605
Sept 2020661
Dec 2020646
Mar 2021647
Jun 2021633
Sept 2021644
Dec 2021622
Mar 2022621
Jun 2022651
Sept 2022639
Dec 2022617
Mar 2023591
Jun 2023706
Sept 2023718
Dec 2023630
Mar 2024641
Jun 2024623
Sept 2024664
Dec 2024669
Mar 2025722
Jun 2025699
Sept 2025673
Dec 2025699

Trend

+26Latest quarter change
-120Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation651
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only20
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
671
Homes for Ukraine
112
Afghan programme
113
Resettlement cumulative
17

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine112
Afghan programme113
Resettlement cumulative17

Population context

All pathways total896
Share of local population0.59%

Ethnic composition projection

Middlesbrough: White British 79.5% (2021) to 51.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2053. 80% CI: 50.8, 56.9%.

Ethnic composition: Middlesbrough

023466891% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 40% in 2061White Other 7% in 2061Asian 18% in 2061Black 11% in 2061Mixed 7% in 2061Other 17% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Middlesbrough

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
86%
2021
80%
10%
2031proj
72%
13%
2041proj
63%
16%
2051proj
52%
18%
8%
12%
2061proj
40%
18%
11%
17%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Middlesbrough ranges from48.5% to 63.0%by 2051. That is a 14.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 54.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 10.8% (2021) → 14.0% (2051). Christian 48.5% → 7.9%.

Religion: Middlesbrough

019385877%Census 2021Christian 8% in 2051No religion 72% in 2051Muslim 14% in 2051Hindu 5% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

12.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.44). 92.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Middlesbrough

729507193%Census 2021UK-born 47% in 2051Foreign-born 53% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.7% moved within UK, 1.6% arrived from abroad
black14.2% internal, 15.8% international
white other13.2% internal, 4.9% international
other14.4% internal, 3.5% international
asian9.5% internal, 7.4% international
mixed11.1% internal, 1.1% international
white british8% internal, 0.2% international

Why Middlesbrough is changing

-6.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.5pp
Local migration
+0.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Middlesbrough on UK Demographics →