Trend
+26 Latest quarter change
-120 Change across series
48 Official data points
Middlesbrough
Andy McDonald
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Middlesbrough.
677 people housed on asylum support in Middlesbrough
Rank 40 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 43.35 per 10,000 puts Middlesbrough in the 97th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2052. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £37M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Middlesbrough
£13.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£812KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 677 people on asylum support in Middlesbrough (0.63% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Middlesbrough: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 651
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 26
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 109
Afghan programme 109
Resettlement cumulative 9
Population context
All pathways total 895
Share of local population 0.57%
Ethnic composition projection
Middlesbrough: WBI 79.5% (2021) → 51.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2052. 80% CI: 47.8–52.1%.
Ethnic composition: Middlesbrough
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Middlesbrough
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Middlesbrough ranges from 48.5% to 63.0% by 2051. That is a 14.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 54.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 10.8% (2021) → 14.0% (2051). Christian 48.5% → 7.9%.
Religion: Middlesbrough
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
12.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.44). 92.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Middlesbrough
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.7% moved within UK, 1.6% arrived from abroad
black 14.2% internal, 15.8% international
white other 13.2% internal, 4.9% international
other 14.4% internal, 3.5% international
asian 9.5% internal, 7.4% international
mixed 11.1% internal, 1.1% international
white british 8% internal, 0.2% international
Why Middlesbrough is changing
-6.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Middlesbrough on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.6%
Mixed 59.4%
White Other 61.8%
Other 44%
Homeownership rate
White British 57.2%
Mixed 40.2%
White Other 29.3%
Other 18.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 30.4%
White Other 30%
Other 27.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 25,551 pupils. 65.5% White British. Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 65.5%
Asian 12.1%
Black 7.5%
Mixed 6.2%
White Other 4.5%
Other 4.3%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
34.5% Minority pupils now
46.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
64% Primary WBI
66.9% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.21pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 72.2% vs school 65.5% (-6.7pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
677 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
43.35 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North East by supported asylum.