Trend
+53 Latest quarter change
+378 Change across series
48 Official data points
Milton Keynes
Emily Darlington
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Milton Keynes.
450 people housed on asylum support in Milton Keynes
Rank 71 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 14.71 per 10,000 puts Milton Keynes in the 70th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2031. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £25M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Milton Keynes
£8.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.2Msubsistence payments/year
£540KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 450 people on asylum support in Milton Keynes (0.42% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Milton Keynes: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 434
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 16
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 620
Afghan programme 157
Resettlement cumulative 85
Population context
All pathways total 1,227
Share of local population 0.4%
Ethnic composition projection
Milton Keynes: WBI 62.2% (2021) → 21.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2031. 80% CI: 25.3–28.3%.
Ethnic composition: Milton Keynes
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Milton Keynes
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Milton Keynes ranges from 41.1% to 47.4% by 2051. That is a 6.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 43.7% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 7.6% (2021) → 17.4% (2051). Christian 45.4% → 16.9%.
Religion: Milton Keynes
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
25.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.68). 87.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Milton Keynes
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.9% moved within UK, 1.1% arrived from abroad
white other 15.9% internal, 3.2% international
other 12.5% internal, 3.9% international
asian 10.8% internal, 2.8% international
mixed 11.6% internal, 1% international
black 10.8% internal, 1.6% international
white british 8.5% internal, 0.3% international
Why Milton Keynes is changing
-11.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Milton Keynes on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 70.8%
White Other 81.9%
Other 68.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 63.3%
Mixed 47.5%
White Other 44.4%
Other 47.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 34.8%
Mixed 35.3%
White Other 42.6%
Other 44.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 51,189 pupils. 43.8% White British. Schools are 18.4pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 43.8%
Asian 19.1%
Black 15.3%
White Other 10.7%
Mixed 9.6%
Other 1.6%
What this means
Schools are 18pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
56.2% Minority pupils now
74.3% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
41.8% Primary WBI
45.5% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.67pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 53.3% vs school 43.8% (-9.5pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
450 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
14.71 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South East by supported asylum.