Trend
-21 Latest quarter change
+788 Change across series
48 Official data points
Newcastle upon Tyne
Dame Chi Onwurah
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Newcastle upon Tyne.
1,005 people housed on asylum support in Newcastle upon Tyne
Rank 24 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 31.35 per 10,000 puts Newcastle upon Tyne in the 91st percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2041. 187 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £55M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Newcastle upon Tyne
£19.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.6Msubsistence payments/year
£1.2MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,005 people on asylum support in Newcastle upon Tyne (0.94% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Newcastle upon Tyne: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 805
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 13
Contingency accommodation 187
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 400
Afghan programme 173
Resettlement cumulative 385
Population context
All pathways total 1,578
Share of local population 0.49%
Ethnic composition projection
Newcastle upon Tyne: WBI 74.5% (2021) → 34.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2041. 80% CI: 40.2–46.9%.
Ethnic composition: Newcastle upon Tyne
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Newcastle upon Tyne
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Newcastle upon Tyne ranges from 53.2% to 60.8% by 2051. That is a 7.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 9.5% (2021) → 15.4% (2051). Christian 43.9% → 9.5%.
Religion: Newcastle upon Tyne
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
17.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.52). 89.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Newcastle upon Tyne
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 14.2% moved within UK, 1.6% arrived from abroad
white other 17.6% internal, 6.4% international
black 15.5% internal, 5.8% international
mixed 18.2% internal, 2.1% international
other 13.8% internal, 4.6% international
asian 13.2% internal, 5.1% international
white british 13.9% internal, 0.4% international
Why Newcastle upon Tyne is changing
-7.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Newcastle upon Tyne on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.7%
Mixed 58.3%
White Other 65.7%
Other 45.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 52%
Mixed 31.8%
White Other 29.5%
Other 20%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 33.5%
Mixed 40.9%
White Other 48%
Other 40.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 42,290 pupils. 59.2% White British. Schools are 15.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 59.2%
Asian 16%
Black 8.3%
Mixed 6.1%
White Other 6%
Other 4.4%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
40.8% Minority pupils now
53.6% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
57% Primary WBI
61.1% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.17pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 63.2% vs school 59.2% (-4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,005 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
31.35 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
187 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North East by supported asylum.