asylumstatsFollow the money
North East

Newcastle upon Tyne

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dame Chi Onwurah
Dame Chi OnwurahLabour · Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Newcastle upon Tyne.

915 people on asylum support in Newcastle upon Tyne

Rank 23 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 28.52 per 10,000 puts Newcastle upon Tyne in the 89th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2045. 21 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 136 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 915 people at £107 per person per day is about £35.7M a year.

What asylum costs Newcastle upon Tyne

£20.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.3Msubsistence payments/year
£1.1MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 915 people on asylum support in Newcastle upon Tyne(0.98% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Newcastle upon Tyne: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,128
1,8151,2106050Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Mar 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014340
Jun 2014358
Sept 2014385
Dec 2014457
Mar 2015509
Jun 2015546
Sept 2015537
Dec 2015572
Mar 2016661
Jun 2016693
Sept 2016721
Dec 2016797
Mar 2017781
Jun 2017706
Sept 2017775
Dec 2017842
Mar 2018960
Jun 2018947
Sept 20181,031
Dec 20181,182
Mar 20191,238
Jun 20191,249
Sept 20191,175
Dec 20191,042
Mar 2020905
Jun 2020941
Sept 20201,034
Dec 20201,050
Mar 20211,017
Jun 20211,124
Sept 20211,108
Dec 20211,147
Mar 20221,165
Jun 20221,254
Sept 20221,295
Dec 20221,268
Mar 20231,815
Jun 20231,630
Sept 20231,671
Dec 20231,456
Mar 20241,486
Jun 20241,334
Sept 20241,319
Dec 20241,323
Mar 20251,264
Jun 20251,190
Sept 20251,149
Dec 20251,128

Trend

-21Latest quarter change
+788Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation758
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only21
Contingency accommodation136

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
915
Homes for Ukraine
414
Afghan programme
180
Resettlement cumulative
385

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine414
Afghan programme180
Resettlement cumulative385

Population context

All pathways total1,509
Share of local population0.47%

Ethnic composition projection

Newcastle upon Tyne: White British 74.5% (2021) to 43.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2045. 80% CI: 41.2, 48.5%.

Ethnic composition: Newcastle upon Tyne

022436587% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 32% in 2061White Other 11% in 2061Asian 19% in 2061Black 15% in 2061Mixed 8% in 2061Other 16% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Newcastle upon Tyne

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
82%
10%
2021
74%
11%
2031proj
66%
14%
2041proj
55%
8%
16%
8%
2051proj
43%
10%
18%
11%
12%
2061proj
32%
11%
19%
15%
16%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Newcastle upon Tyne ranges from53.2% to 60.8%by 2051. That is a 7.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 9.5% (2021) → 15.4% (2051). Christian 43.9% → 9.5%.

Religion: Newcastle upon Tyne

523415977%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 72% in 2051Muslim 15% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

17.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.52). 89.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Newcastle upon Tyne

1231506988%Census 2021UK-born 51% in 2051Foreign-born 49% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 14.2% moved within UK, 1.6% arrived from abroad
white other17.6% internal, 6.4% international
black15.5% internal, 5.8% international
mixed18.2% internal, 2.1% international
other13.8% internal, 4.6% international
asian13.2% internal, 5.1% international
white british13.9% internal, 0.4% international

Why Newcastle upon Tyne is changing

-7.4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.2pp
Local migration
-0.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Newcastle upon Tyne on UK Demographics →