Trend
+55 Latest quarter change
+578 Change across series
32 Official data points
North Northamptonshire
Lee Barron
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping North Northamptonshire.
613 people housed on asylum support in North Northamptonshire
Rank 48 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 16.4 per 10,000 puts North Northamptonshire in the 72nd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2060. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £34M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs North Northamptonshire
£12.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.6Msubsistence payments/year
£736KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 613 people on asylum support in North Northamptonshire (0.57% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
North Northamptonshire: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 610
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,013
Afghan programme 102
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,728
Share of local population 0.46%
Ethnic composition projection
North Northamptonshire: WBI 80.5% (2021) → 56.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2060. 80% CI: 52.1–58.8%.
Ethnic composition: North Northamptonshire
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: North Northamptonshire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in North Northamptonshire ranges from 60.3% to 68.6% by 2051. That is a 8.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.7% by 2051
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View North Northamptonshire on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.5%
Mixed 70.5%
White Other 81.3%
Other 72.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 69%
Mixed 49.7%
White Other 43.2%
Other 44.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 30.4%
White Other 30.5%
Other 29.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 55,772 pupils. 67.2% White British. Schools are 13.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 67.2%
White Other 12.8%
Black 7.7%
Mixed 6.2%
Asian 5.3%
Other 0.8%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
32.8% Minority pupils now
38% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
66.4% Primary WBI
68.2% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.83pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 77% vs school 67.2% (-9.8pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
84.7 crimes per 1,000 residents (60th percentile). Down 1.4% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
84.7 Per 1,000 residents
478 Hate crimes
30.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 382 per 10,000 pupils (88th percentile). 5-year growth: +45.1%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
4,842 Total EHCPs
32.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £488 per capita (24th percentile).
£488 Gross spend per capita
352 Residential per 10k 65+
19.0 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
2,842 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 48.8/100.
16.4 Asylum rate /10k
-0.00pp WB annual change
84.7 Crime /1,000
+45.1% SEND 5yr growth
£488 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
613 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
16.4 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.