Trend
-9 Latest quarter change
+357 Change across series
48 Official data points
North Tyneside
Kirsty Blackman
81 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping North Tyneside.
447 people housed on asylum support in North Tyneside
Rank 72 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 20.79 per 10,000 puts North Tyneside in the 82nd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £24M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs North Tyneside
£8.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.1Msubsistence payments/year
£536KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 447 people on asylum support in North Tyneside (0.42% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
North Tyneside: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 443
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 354
Afghan programme 65
Resettlement cumulative 59
Population context
All pathways total 866
Share of local population 0.4%
Ethnic composition projection
North Tyneside: WBI 92.5% (2021) → 84.0% (2051). 80% CI: 79.8–82.4%.
Ethnic composition: North Tyneside
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: North Tyneside
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in North Tyneside ranges from 65.7% to 81.8% by 2051. That is a 16.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 71.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 2.2% (2051). Christian 48.9% → 7.8%.
Religion: North Tyneside
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
5.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.21). 97.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: North Tyneside
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.5% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
other 12.8% internal, 6.2% international
black 13.9% internal, 3.8% international
white other 12.6% internal, 3.2% international
asian 10.1% internal, 2% international
mixed 9.9% internal, 0.8% international
white british 7.2% internal, 0.2% international
Why North Tyneside is changing
-2.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View North Tyneside on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.5%
Mixed 72%
White Other 76.1%
Other 58.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 64.7%
Mixed 50.9%
White Other 51.8%
Other 38.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.2%
Mixed 41.9%
White Other 54.4%
Other 42.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 31,066 pupils. 86.8% White British. Schools are 5.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 86.8%
Asian 4.3%
Mixed 3.4%
White Other 2.7%
Black 1.9%
Other 0.9%
What this means
Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
13.2% Minority pupils now
21.5% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
85.6% Primary WBI
88% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.62pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 89.5% vs school 86.8% (-2.7pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
447 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.79 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.