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North East

Northumberland

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
David Smith
David SmithLabour · North Northumberland
678 people on asylum support in Northumberland

Rank 37 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 20.3 per 10,000 puts Northumberland in the 83rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 5 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 678 people at £107 per person per day is about £26.5M a year.

What asylum costs Northumberland

£15.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£814KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 678 people on asylum support in Northumberland(0.73% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Northumberland: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

691
7034692340Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2024Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20141
Jun 20141
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Sept 20151
Dec 20151
Sept 20163
Dec 201619
Mar 201719
Jun 201724
Sept 201729
Dec 201760
Mar 201865
Jun 201881
Sept 201881
Dec 201896
Mar 201999
Jun 2019128
Sept 2019137
Dec 2019166
Mar 2020207
Jun 2020220
Sept 2020236
Dec 2020256
Mar 2021248
Jun 2021277
Sept 2021284
Dec 2021298
Mar 2022316
Jun 2022343
Sept 2022319
Dec 2022323
Mar 2023316
Jun 2023450
Sept 2023493
Dec 2023530
Mar 2024574
Jun 2024616
Sept 2024676
Dec 2024703
Mar 2025691
Jun 2025688
Sept 2025661
Dec 2025691

Trend

+30Latest quarter change
+690Change across series
45Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation673
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only5
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
678
Homes for Ukraine
690
Afghan programme
208
Resettlement cumulative
186

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine690
Afghan programme208
Resettlement cumulative186

Population context

All pathways total1,576
Share of local population0.47%

Ethnic composition projection

Northumberland: White British 96.1% (2021) to 70.9% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Northumberland

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 71% in 2051White Other 8% in 2051Asian 10% in 2051Black 5% in 2051Other 3% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackOther

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Northumberland

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
97%
2021
96%
2026proj
93%
2031proj
89%
2036proj
85%
2041proj
80%
2046proj
76%
9%
2051proj
71%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Northumberland ranges from74.9% to 88.8%by 2051. That is a 13.9pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 80.4% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.9% (2051). Christian 56.1% → 11.4%.

Religion: Northumberland

628497092%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 87% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

3.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.12). 98.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Northumberland

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 86% in 2051Foreign-born 14% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black13.2% internal, 6.5% international
other11.6% internal, 4.4% international
white other11.8% internal, 2% international
mixed11.6% internal, 1.1% international
asian8.2% internal, 2.3% international
white british7.8% internal, 0.2% international

Why Northumberland is changing

-1.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.4pp
Local migration
+6.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Northumberland on UK Demographics →