Trend
+30 Latest quarter change
+690 Change across series
45 Official data points
Northumberland
David Smith
703 people housed on asylum support in Northumberland
Rank 36 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 21.21 per 10,000 puts Northumberland in the 83rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £38M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Northumberland
£13.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.8Msubsistence payments/year
£844KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 703 people on asylum support in Northumberland (0.66% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Northumberland: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 698
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 5
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 682
Afghan programme 202
Resettlement cumulative 186
Population context
All pathways total 1,587
Share of local population 0.48%
Ethnic composition projection
Northumberland: WBI 96.1% (2021) → 70.9% (2051). 80% CI: 87.8–90.1%.
Ethnic composition: Northumberland
White British White Other Asian Black Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Northumberland
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Northumberland ranges from 74.9% to 88.8% by 2051. That is a 13.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 80.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.9% (2051). Christian 56.1% → 11.4%.
Religion: Northumberland
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
3.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.12). 98.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Northumberland
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black 13.2% internal, 6.5% international
other 11.6% internal, 4.4% international
white other 11.8% internal, 2% international
mixed 11.6% internal, 1.1% international
asian 8.2% internal, 2.3% international
white british 7.8% internal, 0.2% international
Why Northumberland is changing
-1.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Northumberland on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 55%
Mixed 65.5%
White Other 65.7%
Other 55.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 66%
Mixed 53.9%
White Other 56%
Other 43.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.3%
Mixed 39.5%
White Other 51.7%
Other 35.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 44,372 pupils. 92.3% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 92.3%
Mixed 2.4%
Asian 2%
White Other 1.8%
Black 1%
Other 0.6%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
7.7% Minority pupils now
15.5% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
91.6% Primary WBI
92.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.9pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 94.5% vs school 92.3% (-2.2pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
703 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
21.21 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North East by supported asylum.