asylumstats Follow YOUR money
East Midlands

Nottingham

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
Nadia Whittome
Nadia Whittome Labour · Nottingham East

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Nottingham.

1,538 people housed on asylum support in Nottingham

Rank 7 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 46.45 per 10,000 puts Nottingham in the 99th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2028. 238 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £84M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Nottingham

£30.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.9Msubsistence payments/year
£1.8MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,538 people on asylum support in Nottingham (1.44% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Nottingham: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,605
1,605 1,070 535 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Dec 2025 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

+20 Latest quarter change
+1,053 Change across series
48 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 1,263
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 37
Contingency accommodation 238

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,538
Homes for Ukraine
423
Afghan programme
245
Resettlement cumulative
223

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 423
Afghan programme 245
Resettlement cumulative 223

Population context

All pathways total 2,206
Share of local population 0.67%

Ethnic composition projection

Nottingham: WBI 57.4% (2021) → 20.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2028. 80% CI: 23–29.2%.

Ethnic composition: Nottingham

0 18 35 53 70 % of population Census 2021 Illustrative White British 10% White Other 9% Asian 10% Black 15% Mixed 2% Other 55% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Nottingham

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
65%
13%
12%
2021
57%
9%
15%
10%
2031 proj
47%
11%
16%
13%
2041 proj
33%
13%
16%
16%
17%
2051 proj
20%
12%
14%
17%
33%
2061 proj
10%
9%
10%
15%
55%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Nottingham ranges from 39.2% to 44.1% by 2051. That is a 4.9pp spread.

Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 41.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 13.2% (2021) → 26.6% (2051). Christian 37.5% → 13.6%.

Religion: Nottingham

8 21 34 47 60 % Census 2021 Christian 14% No religion 55% Muslim 27% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

24.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.74). 85.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Nottingham

20 35 50 65 80 % Census 2021 UK-born 40% Foreign-born 60% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 14.3% moved within UK, 1.9% arrived from abroad
other 15.2% internal, 5.7% international
white other 14.7% internal, 4.5% international
asian 12.6% internal, 5.4% international
black 14% internal, 2.7% international
mixed 15.5% internal, 1.1% international
white british 14.6% internal, 0.4% international

Why Nottingham is changing

-8.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+1.2pp
Local migration
-2.9pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Nottingham on UK Demographics →