asylumstatsFollow the money
East Midlands

Nottingham

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Nadia Whittome
Nadia WhittomeLabour · Nottingham East

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Nottingham.

1,352 people on asylum support in Nottingham

Rank 9 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 41.5 per 10,000 puts Nottingham in the 96th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2028. 40 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 46 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 1,352 people at £107 per person per day is about £52.8M a year.

What asylum costs Nottingham

£30.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.5Msubsistence payments/year
£1.6MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,352 people on asylum support in Nottingham(1.45% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Nottingham: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,605
1,6051,0705350Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014552
Jun 2014598
Sept 2014666
Dec 2014750
Mar 2015759
Jun 2015791
Sept 2015836
Dec 2015870
Mar 2016931
Jun 2016967
Sept 2016991
Dec 2016985
Mar 2017980
Jun 2017991
Sept 2017918
Dec 2017911
Mar 20181,020
Jun 2018980
Sept 2018960
Dec 2018957
Mar 2019958
Jun 2019937
Sept 2019877
Dec 2019908
Mar 2020881
Jun 2020952
Sept 2020990
Dec 2020924
Mar 2021908
Jun 2021852
Sept 2021826
Dec 20211,159
Mar 20221,133
Jun 20221,186
Sept 20221,143
Dec 20221,392
Mar 20231,532
Jun 20231,577
Sept 20231,562
Dec 20231,490
Mar 20241,396
Jun 20241,368
Sept 20241,473
Dec 20241,535
Mar 20251,533
Jun 20251,522
Sept 20251,585
Dec 20251,605

Trend

+20Latest quarter change
+1,053Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation1,266
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only40
Contingency accommodation46

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,352
Homes for Ukraine
431
Afghan programme
236
Resettlement cumulative
233

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine431
Afghan programme236
Resettlement cumulative233

Population context

All pathways total2,019
Share of local population0.62%

Ethnic composition projection

Nottingham: White British 57.4% (2021) to 25.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2028. 80% CI: 23.4, 29.3%.

Ethnic composition: Nottingham

018355370% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 17% in 2061White Other 15% in 2061Asian 21% in 2061Black 22% in 2061Mixed 7% in 2061Other 18% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Nottingham

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
65%
13%
12%
2021
57%
9%
15%
10%
2031proj
47%
11%
17%
13%
2041proj
36%
13%
19%
16%
9%
2051proj
26%
14%
21%
20%
13%
2061proj
17%
15%
21%
22%
18%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Nottingham ranges from39.2% to 44.1%by 2051. That is a 4.9pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 41.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 13.2% (2021) → 26.6% (2051). Christian 37.5% → 13.6%.

Religion: Nottingham

821344760%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 55% in 2051Muslim 27% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

24.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.74). 85.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Nottingham

2035506580%Census 2021UK-born 40% in 2051Foreign-born 60% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 14.3% moved within UK, 1.9% arrived from abroad
other15.2% internal, 5.7% international
white other14.7% internal, 4.5% international
asian12.6% internal, 5.4% international
black14% internal, 2.7% international
mixed15.5% internal, 1.1% international
white british14.6% internal, 0.4% international

Why Nottingham is changing

-8.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+1.2pp
Local migration
-2.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Nottingham on UK Demographics →