Trend
-7 Latest quarter change
+271 Change across series
48 Official data points
Oxford
Anneliese Dodds
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Oxford.
230 people housed on asylum support in Oxford
Rank 129 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 13.85 per 10,000 puts Oxford in the 67th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2024. 185 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £13M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Oxford
£4.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£588Ksubsistence payments/year
£276KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 230 people on asylum support in Oxford (0.21% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Oxford: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 29
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 16
Contingency accommodation 185
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 492
Afghan programme 129
Resettlement cumulative 195
Population context
All pathways total 851
Share of local population 0.51%
Ethnic composition projection
Oxford: WBI 53.5% (2021) → 19.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2024. 80% CI: 21–28%.
Ethnic composition: Oxford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Oxford
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Oxford ranges from 33.3% to 40.4% by 2051. That is a 7.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 36.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 9.7% (2021) → 16.6% (2051). Christian 42.3% → 17.4%.
Religion: Oxford
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
35% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.75). 81.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Oxford
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 17.3% moved within UK, 4.1% arrived from abroad
white other 19% internal, 9.4% international
other 18.6% internal, 5.8% international
mixed 18.6% internal, 3.8% international
asian 13.8% internal, 8.4% international
white british 17.8% internal, 1% international
black 14.2% internal, 4% international
Why Oxford is changing
-10.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Oxford on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 53.6%
Mixed 56.4%
White Other 68.5%
Other 64.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 51.4%
Mixed 27%
White Other 34.2%
Other 29.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 45%
Mixed 41.5%
White Other 61.7%
Other 49.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
230 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
13.85 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
185 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.