Trend
+46 Latest quarter change
+316 Change across series
48 Official data points
Plymouth
Fred Thomas
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Plymouth.
495 people housed on asylum support in Plymouth
Rank 64 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 18.19 per 10,000 puts Plymouth in the 77th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £27M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Plymouth
£9.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£594KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 495 people on asylum support in Plymouth (0.46% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Plymouth: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 486
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 9
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 323
Afghan programme 268
Resettlement cumulative 211
Population context
All pathways total 1,086
Share of local population 0.4%
Ethnic composition projection
Plymouth: WBI 89.5% (2021) → 74.9% (2051). 80% CI: 70.6–74.9%.
Ethnic composition: Plymouth
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Plymouth
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Plymouth ranges from 67.2% to 79.3% by 2051. That is a 12.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 72.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.4% (2021) → 3.0% (2051). Christian 45.2% → 9.0%.
Religion: Plymouth
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
9.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.27). 95.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Plymouth
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 10.9% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
asian 17.8% internal, 6.7% international
black 17.4% internal, 5.6% international
other 16.5% internal, 3.8% international
white other 14.5% internal, 3.4% international
mixed 16.4% internal, 1.2% international
white british 10.3% internal, 0.3% international
Why Plymouth is changing
-3.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Plymouth on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.9%
Mixed 61.4%
White Other 73.4%
Other 56.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 60.2%
Mixed 43.7%
White Other 38.5%
Other 27.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.5%
Mixed 36.1%
White Other 43.2%
Other 35.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 38,232 pupils. 82.2% White British. Schools are 7.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 82.2%
White Other 5.2%
Mixed 3.8%
Black 3.4%
Asian 3.3%
Other 2.1%
What this means
Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
17.8% Minority pupils now
29.1% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
81.1% Primary WBI
83.1% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.79pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 87.4% vs school 82.2% (-5.2pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
495 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
18.19 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South West by supported asylum.