Trend
-19 Latest quarter change
+623 Change across series
48 Official data points
Portsmouth
Amanda Martin
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Portsmouth.
699 people housed on asylum support in Portsmouth
Rank 37 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 32.61 per 10,000 puts Portsmouth in the 92nd percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2047. 97 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £38M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Portsmouth
£13.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.8Msubsistence payments/year
£839KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 699 people on asylum support in Portsmouth (0.65% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Portsmouth: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 587
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 15
Contingency accommodation 97
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 229
Afghan programme 149
Resettlement cumulative 9
Population context
All pathways total 1,077
Share of local population 0.5%
Ethnic composition projection
Portsmouth: WBI 77.7% (2021) → 45.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2047. 80% CI: 45.5–51%.
Ethnic composition: Portsmouth
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Portsmouth
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Portsmouth ranges from 52.5% to 63.2% by 2051. That is a 10.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 5.2% (2021) → 9.1% (2051). Christian 42.1% → 11.5%.
Religion: Portsmouth
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
16.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.48). 90.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Portsmouth
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 12.9% moved within UK, 1.3% arrived from abroad
black 21.5% internal, 7.8% international
other 17.3% internal, 5.7% international
white other 16.9% internal, 4.6% international
asian 15.8% internal, 5.3% international
mixed 18.2% internal, 1.4% international
white british 11.6% internal, 0.3% international
Why Portsmouth is changing
-6.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Portsmouth on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.6%
Mixed 63.7%
White Other 76%
Other 51%
Homeownership rate
White British 55.8%
Mixed 37.8%
White Other 29.5%
Other 23.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 28.5%
Mixed 34.7%
White Other 43.7%
Other 36.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 27,459 pupils. 66.1% White British. Schools are 11.6pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 66.1%
Asian 9.6%
Black 8.4%
White Other 7.7%
Mixed 5.8%
Other 2.4%
What this means
Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
33.9% Minority pupils now
47.1% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
64% Primary WBI
68.4% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.39pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 74% vs school 66.1% (-7.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
699 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
32.61 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
97 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South East by supported asylum.