Trend
+6 Latest quarter change
+257 Change across series
48 Official data points
Redcar and Cleveland
Luke Myer
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Redcar and Cleveland.
275 people housed on asylum support in Redcar and Cleveland
Rank 111 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 19.75 per 10,000 puts Redcar and Cleveland in the 80th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £15M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Redcar and Cleveland
£5.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£703Ksubsistence payments/year
£330KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 275 people on asylum support in Redcar and Cleveland (0.26% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Redcar and Cleveland: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 273
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 166
Afghan programme 85
Resettlement cumulative 393
Population context
All pathways total 526
Share of local population 0.38%
Ethnic composition projection
Redcar and Cleveland: WBI 96.5% (2021) → 94.2% (2051). 80% CI: 89.8–91.2%.
Ethnic composition: Redcar and Cleveland
White British Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Redcar and Cleveland
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Redcar and Cleveland ranges from 61.1% to 84.0% by 2051. That is a 22.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 69.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.8% (2021) → 1.1% (2051). Christian 56.0% → 8.5%.
Religion: Redcar and Cleveland
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
2.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.11). 98.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Redcar and Cleveland
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.2% moved within UK, 0.2% arrived from abroad
black 16.3% internal, 4.9% international
other 16.4% internal, 2.3% international
mixed 12.3% internal, 1.3% international
white other 11% internal, 2.6% international
asian 8.6% internal, 2.8% international
white british 7% internal, 0.2% international
Why Redcar and Cleveland is changing
-1.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Redcar and Cleveland on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 53%
Mixed 61%
White Other 61.6%
Other 38.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 49.6%
White Other 53.1%
Other 20.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.7%
Mixed 32.5%
White Other 42.6%
Other 26.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 20,621 pupils. 92.3% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 92.3%
Mixed 2.7%
White Other 1.5%
Asian 1.3%
Black 1.3%
Other 0.9%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
7.7% Minority pupils now
14.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
92% Primary WBI
92.4% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.43pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 95% vs school 92.3% (-2.7pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
275 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
19.75 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.