Trend
+6 Latest quarter change
+563 Change across series
22 Official data points
Rugby
John Slinger
506 people housed on asylum support in Rugby
Rank 60 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 41.35 per 10,000 puts Rugby in the 96th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2044. 391 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £28M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Rugby
£10.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£607KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 506 people on asylum support in Rugby (0.47% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Rugby: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 115
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 391
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 336
Afghan programme 53
Resettlement cumulative 37
Population context
All pathways total 895
Share of local population 0.73%
Ethnic composition projection
Rugby: WBI 74.9% (2021) → 41.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2044. 80% CI: 41.6–46.3%.
Ethnic composition: Rugby
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Rugby
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Rugby ranges from 41.6% to 57.0% by 2051. That is a 15.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 47.2% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.6% (2051). Christian 53.7% → 15.0%.
Religion: Rugby
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
18.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.5). 88.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Rugby
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 10% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
other 16.1% internal, 4.6% international
white other 15.2% internal, 3.1% international
black 15.6% internal, 2.1% international
asian 13.1% internal, 1.6% international
mixed 12.9% internal, 1% international
white british 8.6% internal, 0.3% international
Why Rugby is changing
-9.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Rugby on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.9%
Mixed 70.5%
White Other 83.7%
Other 76.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 72.7%
Mixed 47.3%
White Other 40.6%
Other 52.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 34.8%
Mixed 33.7%
White Other 35.3%
Other 43.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
506 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
41.35 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
391 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in West Midlands by supported asylum.