asylumstatsFollow the money
West Midlands

Rugby

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
John Slinger
John SlingerLabour · Rugby
567 people on asylum support in Rugby

Rank 52 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 45.15 per 10,000 puts Rugby in the 98th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2052. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 433 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 567 people at £107 per person per day is about £22.1M a year.

What asylum costs Rugby

£12.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.5Msubsistence payments/year
£680KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 567 people on asylum support in Rugby(0.61% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Rugby: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

565
5653771880Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20142
Dec 20205
Mar 20215
Jun 20215
Sept 20215
Dec 202181
Mar 202244
Jun 202268
Sept 2022141
Dec 2022407
Mar 2023411
Jun 2023210
Sept 2023438
Dec 2023331
Mar 2024276
Jun 2024317
Sept 2024421
Dec 2024379
Mar 2025315
Jun 2025377
Sept 2025559
Dec 2025565

Trend

+6Latest quarter change
+563Change across series
22Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation133
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation433

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
567
Homes for Ukraine
342
Afghan programme
53
Resettlement cumulative
37

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine342
Afghan programme53
Resettlement cumulative37

Population context

All pathways total962
Share of local population0.77%

Ethnic composition projection

Rugby: White British 74.9% (2021) to 50.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2052. 80% CI: 49.7, 55.2%.

Ethnic composition: Rugby

022456789% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 42% in 2061White Other 19% in 2061Asian 15% in 2061Black 7% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Rugby

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
84%
2021
75%
11%
2031proj
68%
14%
9%
2041proj
60%
17%
11%
2051proj
51%
18%
13%
8%
2061proj
42%
19%
15%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Rugby ranges from41.6% to 57.0%by 2051. That is a 15.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 47.2% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.6% (2051). Christian 53.7% → 15.0%.

Religion: Rugby

019385776%Census 2021Christian 15% in 2051No religion 71% in 2051Muslim 4% in 2051Hindu 6% in 2051Sikh 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHinduSikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

18.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.5). 88.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Rugby

1332506887%Census 2021UK-born 49% in 2051Foreign-born 51% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
other16.1% internal, 4.6% international
white other15.2% internal, 3.1% international
black15.6% internal, 2.1% international
asian13.1% internal, 1.6% international
mixed12.9% internal, 1% international
white british8.6% internal, 0.3% international

Why Rugby is changing

-9.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.3pp
Local migration
-2.5pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Rugby on UK Demographics →