Trend
-21 Latest quarter change
+294 Change across series
39 Official data points
Solihull
Liam Byrne
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Solihull.
207 people housed on asylum support in Solihull
Rank 140 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.36 per 10,000 puts Solihull in the 60th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2045. 123 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £11M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Solihull
£4.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£529Ksubsistence payments/year
£248KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 207 people on asylum support in Solihull (0.19% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Solihull: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 80
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 123
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 341
Afghan programme 88
Resettlement cumulative 24
Population context
All pathways total 636
Share of local population 0.29%
Ethnic composition projection
Solihull: WBI 77.9% (2021) → 41.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2045. 80% CI: 45.6–49.3%.
Ethnic composition: Solihull
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Solihull
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Solihull ranges from 52.1% to 64.1% by 2051. That is a 12pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 5.6% (2021) → 23.3% (2051). Christian 53.5% → 11.2%.
Religion: Solihull
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
10.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 95.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Solihull
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.5% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
other 11.2% internal, 2.1% international
asian 10.4% internal, 1.9% international
white other 9.6% internal, 2.4% international
mixed 9.5% internal, 0.6% international
black 8.9% internal, 0.9% international
white british 6.8% internal, 0.2% international
Why Solihull is changing
-7.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Solihull on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.7%
Mixed 67%
White Other 65.6%
Other 66.4%
Homeownership rate
White British 73.9%
Mixed 44.2%
White Other 66.8%
Other 69.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 34.6%
Mixed 34.4%
White Other 47.1%
Other 54.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 39,214 pupils. 64.1% White British. Schools are 13.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 64.1%
Asian 18.7%
Mixed 9.4%
White Other 3.7%
Black 2.8%
Other 1.3%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
35.9% Minority pupils now
53.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
63.4% Primary WBI
64.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.34pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 69.9% vs school 64.1% (-5.8pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
207 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
9.36 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
123 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in West Midlands by supported asylum.