Trend
+77 Latest quarter change
+214 Change across series
16 Official data points
South Kesteven
Stephen Flynn
77 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Kesteven.
270 people housed on asylum support in South Kesteven
Rank 112 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 18.35 per 10,000 puts South Kesteven in the 77th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £15M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs South Kesteven
£5.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£690Ksubsistence payments/year
£324KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 270 people on asylum support in South Kesteven (0.25% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
South Kesteven: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 266
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 490
Afghan programme 20
Resettlement cumulative 10
Population context
All pathways total 780
Share of local population 0.53%
Ethnic composition projection
South Kesteven: WBI 90.5% (2021) → 81.2% (2051). 80% CI: 73.3–76.9%.
Ethnic composition: South Kesteven
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: South Kesteven
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in South Kesteven ranges from 56.3% to 76.1% by 2051. That is a 19.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 1.4% (2051). Christian 58.1% → 12.3%.
Religion: South Kesteven
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
8.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.24). 95.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: South Kesteven
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.6% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 15% internal, 1.4% international
other 11.8% internal, 3.8% international
mixed 13.3% internal, 1.1% international
asian 10.6% internal, 2.9% international
white other 10.8% internal, 1.9% international
white british 8.3% internal, 0.3% international
Why South Kesteven is changing
-3.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View South Kesteven on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.2%
Mixed 70%
White Other 78.5%
Other 66.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 71%
Mixed 57.8%
White Other 41.4%
Other 48.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.7%
Mixed 39.7%
White Other 35.8%
Other 40.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
270 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
18.35 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East Midlands by supported asylum.