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East Midlands

South Kesteven

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Stephen Flynn
Stephen FlynnSNP · Aberdeen South

77 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Kesteven.

283 people on asylum support in South Kesteven

Rank 105 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 19.11 per 10,000 puts South Kesteven in the 80th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 4 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 283 people at £107 per person per day is about £11.1M a year.

What asylum costs South Kesteven

£6.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£724Ksubsistence payments/year
£340KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 283 people on asylum support in South Kesteven(0.30% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

South Kesteven: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

215
257171860Dec 2018Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Albania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20181
Mar 20191
Jun 20191
Sept 20191
Dec 2022112
Mar 2023254
Jun 2023250
Sept 2023257
Dec 2023147
Jun 20243
Sept 20243
Dec 202424
Mar 202566
Jun 202599
Sept 2025138
Dec 2025215

Trend

+77Latest quarter change
+214Change across series
16Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation279
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only4
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
283
Homes for Ukraine
497
Afghan programme
20
Resettlement cumulative
10

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine497
Afghan programme20
Resettlement cumulative10

Population context

All pathways total800
Share of local population0.54%

Ethnic composition projection

South Kesteven: White British 90.5% (2021) to 80.0% (2051). 80% CI: 79.6, 82.8%.

Ethnic composition: South Kesteven

025497499% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 74% in 2061White Other 11% in 2061Mixed 8% in 2061Other 3% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: South Kesteven

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
94%
2021
90%
2031proj
88%
2041proj
85%
8%
2051proj
80%
9%
2061proj
74%
11%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in South Kesteven ranges from56.3% to 76.1%by 2051. That is a 19.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 1.4% (2051). Christian 58.1% → 12.3%.

Religion: South Kesteven

728486889%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 84% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

8.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.24). 95.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: South Kesteven

427507396%Census 2021UK-born 69% in 2051Foreign-born 31% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.6% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black15% internal, 1.4% international
other11.8% internal, 3.8% international
mixed13.3% internal, 1.1% international
asian10.6% internal, 2.9% international
white other10.8% internal, 1.9% international
white british8.3% internal, 0.3% international

Why South Kesteven is changing

-3.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.1pp
Local migration
+4.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View South Kesteven on UK Demographics →