Trend
+13 Latest quarter change
+596 Change across series
48 Official data points
South Tyneside
Stephen Flynn
77 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Tyneside.
631 people housed on asylum support in South Tyneside
Rank 47 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 41.68 per 10,000 puts South Tyneside in the 96th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 32 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £35M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs South Tyneside
£12.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.6Msubsistence payments/year
£757KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 631 people on asylum support in South Tyneside (0.59% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
South Tyneside: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 598
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 1
Contingency accommodation 32
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 122
Afghan programme 70
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 823
Share of local population 0.54%
Ethnic composition projection
South Tyneside: WBI 93.0% (2021) → 87.3% (2051). 80% CI: 80.1–82.5%.
Ethnic composition: South Tyneside
White British Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: South Tyneside
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in South Tyneside ranges from 59.8% to 79.8% by 2051. That is a 20pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 67.2% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.6% (2021) → 2.0% (2051). Christian 55.1% → 7.8%.
Religion: South Tyneside
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
4.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 97.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: South Tyneside
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.7% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 15.5% internal, 4.6% international
other 10.6% internal, 5.7% international
white other 12.6% internal, 2.9% international
asian 9.5% internal, 3.2% international
mixed 10.6% internal, 1.5% international
white british 6.4% internal, 0.1% international
Why South Tyneside is changing
-2.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View South Tyneside on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 55.7%
Mixed 60.6%
White Other 70%
Other 49.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 57.5%
Mixed 46.6%
White Other 48.1%
Other 37.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 25.7%
Mixed 36.8%
White Other 44.5%
Other 34%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 22,809 pupils. 87.2% White British. Schools are 5.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 87.2%
Asian 4.5%
Mixed 3.4%
Black 2%
White Other 1.8%
Other 1.2%
What this means
Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
12.8% Minority pupils now
19.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
86.1% Primary WBI
88% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.64pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 89.3% vs school 87.2% (-2.1pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
631 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
41.68 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
32 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.