Trend
+13 Latest quarter change
+265 Change across series
48 Official data points
Southampton
Caroline Nokes
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Southampton.
336 people housed on asylum support in Southampton
Rank 96 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 12.95 per 10,000 puts Southampton in the 66th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2036. 94 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £18M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Southampton
£6.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£859Ksubsistence payments/year
£403KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 336 people on asylum support in Southampton (0.31% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Southampton: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 212
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 30
Contingency accommodation 94
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 351
Afghan programme 137
Resettlement cumulative 42
Population context
All pathways total 824
Share of local population 0.32%
Ethnic composition projection
Southampton: WBI 68.1% (2021) → 28.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2036. 80% CI: 32.5–38.1%.
Ethnic composition: Southampton
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Southampton
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Southampton ranges from 46.4% to 54.0% by 2051. That is a 7.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 49.5% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 6.0% (2021) → 10.0% (2051). Christian 43.0% → 14.3%.
Religion: Southampton
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
24.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.6). 84.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Southampton
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 12.4% moved within UK, 2% arrived from abroad
asian 13.1% internal, 7.8% international
white other 16% internal, 4.7% international
black 16% internal, 4.5% international
other 14.6% internal, 5.7% international
mixed 16.7% internal, 1.7% international
white british 11.2% internal, 0.4% international
Why Southampton is changing
-9.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Southampton on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.4%
Mixed 63%
White Other 78%
Other 59.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 52.6%
Mixed 33.2%
White Other 28.2%
Other 31.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.7%
Mixed 33.7%
White Other 41.4%
Other 44.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 34,094 pupils. 53.8% White British. Schools are 14.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 53.8%
Asian 16.3%
White Other 12.7%
Mixed 7.8%
Black 7.1%
Other 2.3%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
46.2% Minority pupils now
60.8% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
53.4% Primary WBI
53.5% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.14pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 62.2% vs school 53.8% (-8.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
336 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
12.95 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
94 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South East by supported asylum.