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South East

Southampton

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Caroline Nokes
Caroline NokesConservative · Romsey and Southampton North

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Southampton.

315 people on asylum support in Southampton

Rank 98 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 12.15 per 10,000 puts Southampton in the 66th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2041. 32 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 65 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 315 people at £107 per person per day is about £12.3M a year.

What asylum costs Southampton

£7.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£806Ksubsistence payments/year
£378KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 315 people on asylum support in Southampton(0.34% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Southampton: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

342
3872581290Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201477
Jun 201488
Sept 201488
Dec 201469
Mar 201574
Jun 201567
Sept 201569
Dec 201580
Mar 201687
Jun 201691
Sept 2016100
Dec 2016129
Mar 2017141
Jun 2017118
Sept 2017111
Dec 2017128
Mar 2018178
Jun 2018188
Sept 2018178
Dec 2018193
Mar 2019182
Jun 2019178
Sept 2019163
Dec 2019155
Mar 2020161
Jun 2020174
Sept 2020219
Dec 2020228
Mar 2021237
Jun 2021230
Sept 2021234
Dec 2021235
Mar 2022229
Jun 2022215
Sept 2022228
Dec 2022387
Mar 2023373
Jun 2023370
Sept 2023377
Dec 2023341
Mar 2024320
Jun 2024297
Sept 2024301
Dec 2024313
Mar 2025315
Jun 2025308
Sept 2025329
Dec 2025342

Trend

+13Latest quarter change
+265Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation218
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only32
Contingency accommodation65

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
315
Homes for Ukraine
356
Afghan programme
141
Resettlement cumulative
42

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine356
Afghan programme141
Resettlement cumulative42

Population context

All pathways total812
Share of local population0.31%

Ethnic composition projection

Southampton: White British 68.1% (2021) to 39.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2041. 80% CI: 37.2, 44.5%.

Ethnic composition: Southampton

021416283% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 31% in 2061White Other 21% in 2061Asian 18% in 2061Black 7% in 2061Mixed 11% in 2061Other 13% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Southampton

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
78%
8%
8%
2021
68%
13%
11%
2031proj
60%
16%
12%
2041proj
50%
19%
14%
2051proj
40%
21%
16%
8%
9%
2061proj
31%
21%
18%
11%
13%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Southampton ranges from46.4% to 54.0%by 2051. That is a 7.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 49.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 6.0% (2021) → 10.0% (2051). Christian 43.0% → 14.3%.

Religion: Southampton

120385776%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 71% in 2051Muslim 10% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

24.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.6). 84.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Southampton

1935506581%Census 2021UK-born 40% in 2051Foreign-born 60% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 12.4% moved within UK, 2% arrived from abroad
asian13.1% internal, 7.8% international
white other16% internal, 4.7% international
black16% internal, 4.5% international
other14.6% internal, 5.7% international
mixed16.7% internal, 1.7% international
white british11.2% internal, 0.4% international

Why Southampton is changing

-9.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.2pp
Local migration
-3.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Southampton on UK Demographics →