Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+239 Change across series
48 Official data points
Southend-on-Sea
257 people housed on asylum support in Southend-on-Sea
Rank 119 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 13.87 per 10,000 puts Southend-on-Sea in the 67th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £14M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Southend-on-Sea
£5.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£657Ksubsistence payments/year
£308KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 257 people on asylum support in Southend-on-Sea (0.24% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Southend-on-Sea: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 248
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 9
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 313
Afghan programme 98
Resettlement cumulative 34
Population context
All pathways total 668
Share of local population 0.36%
Ethnic composition projection
Southend-on-Sea: WBI 81.6% (2021) → 59.8% (2051). 80% CI: 58–61.8%.
Ethnic composition: Southend-on-Sea
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Southend-on-Sea
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Southend-on-Sea ranges from 53.6% to 67.5% by 2051. That is a 13.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 59.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 3.2% (2021) → 7.1% (2051). Christian 45.2% → 11.3%.
Religion: Southend-on-Sea
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
12.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.42). 94.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Southend-on-Sea
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.7% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
other 12.8% internal, 4.6% international
white other 12.2% internal, 2.2% international
asian 10.7% internal, 2.8% international
mixed 11.5% internal, 0.8% international
black 10.7% internal, 1.4% international
white british 8.1% internal, 0.2% international
Why Southend-on-Sea is changing
-5.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Southend-on-Sea on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.5%
Mixed 70.4%
White Other 71.7%
Other 62.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 63.6%
Mixed 47.8%
White Other 43.6%
Other 43.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26%
Mixed 34.3%
White Other 40%
Other 40%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 31,118 pupils. 62.9% White British. Schools are 18.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 62.9%
Asian 12.9%
Black 8.6%
Mixed 7.7%
White Other 6.6%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
37.1% Minority pupils now
39.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
67.8% Primary WBI
57.2% Secondary WBI
Slowing diversification. Primary schools are less diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.16pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 75.6% vs school 62.9% (-12.7pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
257 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
13.87 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.