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South East

Spelthorne

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Lincoln Jopp
Lincoln JoppConservative · Spelthorne
70 people on asylum support in Spelthorne

Rank 209 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 6.53 per 10,000 puts Spelthorne in the 50th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2040. 11 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 36 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 70 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.7M a year.

What asylum costs Spelthorne

£1.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£179Ksubsistence payments/year
£84KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 70 people on asylum support in Spelthorne(0.08% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. 1 known hotel sites in this area.

Spelthorne: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

87
13187440Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Mar 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20147
Jun 20144
Sept 20144
Dec 20144
Mar 20155
Jun 20155
Sept 20155
Dec 20155
Mar 20164
Jun 20164
Sept 20164
Jun 20172
Sept 20174
Dec 201710
Mar 201810
Jun 201817
Sept 201826
Dec 201824
Mar 201921
Jun 201919
Sept 201915
Dec 201916
Mar 202017
Jun 202017
Sept 202016
Dec 202017
Mar 202121
Jun 202121
Sept 202121
Dec 202119
Mar 202217
Jun 202231
Sept 202229
Dec 2022119
Mar 2023131
Jun 2023113
Sept 2023118
Dec 202397
Mar 202495
Jun 2024102
Sept 2024114
Dec 2024125
Mar 2025105
Jun 202590
Sept 202570
Dec 202587

Trend

+17Latest quarter change
+80Change across series
46Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation23
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only11
Contingency accommodation36

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
70
Homes for Ukraine
402
Afghan programme
81
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine402
Afghan programme81
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total553
Share of local population0.52%

Ethnic composition projection

Spelthorne: White British 69.2% (2021) to 37.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2040. 80% CI: 37.2, 42.2%.

Ethnic composition: Spelthorne

021436486% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 28% in 2061White Other 13% in 2061Asian 26% in 2061Black 5% in 2061Mixed 17% in 2061Other 12% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Spelthorne

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
81%
2021
69%
9%
13%
2031proj
60%
11%
16%
2041proj
49%
13%
20%
8%
2051proj
38%
13%
24%
12%
9%
2061proj
28%
13%
26%
17%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Spelthorne ranges from36.5% to 51.1%by 2051. That is a 14.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 41.7% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 4.3% (2021) → 20.1% (2051). Christian 54.0% → 13.8%.

Religion: Spelthorne

015304459%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 44% in 2051Muslim 20% in 2051Hindu 12% in 2051Sikh 8% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHinduSikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

20.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.58). 89.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Spelthorne

1633506784%Census 2021UK-born 45% in 2051Foreign-born 55% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.6% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
black14.6% internal, 2.7% international
other12.7% internal, 3% international
white other13% internal, 2% international
asian11.5% internal, 1.9% international
mixed10.9% internal, 0.9% international
white british7% internal, 0.3% international

Why Spelthorne is changing

-11.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.1pp
Local migration
-5.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Spelthorne on UK Demographics →