Trend
+17 Latest quarter change
+80 Change across series
46 Official data points
Spelthorne
Lincoln Jopp
78 people housed on asylum support in Spelthorne
Rank 196 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 7.28 per 10,000 puts Spelthorne in the 52nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2037. 40 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £4M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Spelthorne
£1.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£199Ksubsistence payments/year
£94KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 78 people on asylum support in Spelthorne (0.07% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. 1 known hotel sites in this area. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Spelthorne: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 31
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 7
Contingency accommodation 40
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 385
Afghan programme 81
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 544
Share of local population 0.51%
Ethnic composition projection
Spelthorne: WBI 69.2% (2021) → 31.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2037. 80% CI: 32.4–36.2%.
Ethnic composition: Spelthorne
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Spelthorne
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Spelthorne ranges from 36.5% to 51.1% by 2051. That is a 14.6pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 41.7% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 4.3% (2021) → 20.1% (2051). Christian 54.0% → 13.8%.
Religion: Spelthorne
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
20.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.58). 89.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Spelthorne
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.6% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
black 14.6% internal, 2.7% international
other 12.7% internal, 3% international
white other 13% internal, 2% international
asian 11.5% internal, 1.9% international
mixed 10.9% internal, 0.9% international
white british 7% internal, 0.3% international
Why Spelthorne is changing
-11.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Spelthorne on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.7%
Mixed 71.6%
White Other 77.7%
Other 71.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 72%
Mixed 52.7%
White Other 51.3%
Other 56.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.8%
Mixed 37.2%
White Other 45.4%
Other 45.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
78 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
7.28 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
40 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.