Trend
-84 Latest quarter change
+313 Change across series
42 Official data points
Stevenage
Kevin Bonavia
261 people housed on asylum support in Stevenage
Rank 117 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 28.44 per 10,000 puts Stevenage in the 89th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 212 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £14M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Stevenage
£5.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£667Ksubsistence payments/year
£313KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 261 people on asylum support in Stevenage (0.24% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Stevenage: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 45
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 212
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 90
Afghan programme 47
Resettlement cumulative 35
Population context
All pathways total 398
Share of local population 0.43%
Ethnic composition projection
Stevenage: WBI 75.3% (2021) → 56.4% (2051). 80% CI: 49.6–55.9%.
Ethnic composition: Stevenage
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Stevenage
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Stevenage ranges from 39.8% to 57.1% by 2051. That is a 17.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 45.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 3.3% (2021) → 9.0% (2051). Christian 45.8% → 15.3%.
Religion: Stevenage
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
16.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 91.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Stevenage
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.7% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
other 10% internal, 5.2% international
white other 12.3% internal, 2.3% international
asian 9.8% internal, 4.3% international
black 9.4% internal, 3.6% international
mixed 9.4% internal, 0.8% international
white british 6.8% internal, 0.1% international
Why Stevenage is changing
-7.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Stevenage on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65.8%
Mixed 75.4%
White Other 78.6%
Other 73.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.6%
Mixed 46.6%
White Other 51.2%
Other 55%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 28.1%
Mixed 34.9%
White Other 41.8%
Other 47.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
261 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
28.44 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
212 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.