asylumstatsFollow the money
West Midlands

Stoke-on-Trent

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Gareth Snell
Gareth SnellLabour (Co-op) · Stoke-on-Trent Central

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Stoke-on-Trent.

1,021 people on asylum support in Stoke-on-Trent

Rank 20 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 37.5 per 10,000 puts Stoke-on-Trent in the 95th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2048. 22 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 1,021 people at £107 per person per day is about £39.9M a year.

What asylum costs Stoke-on-Trent

£23.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.6Msubsistence payments/year
£1.2MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1,021 people on asylum support in Stoke-on-Trent(1.09% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Stoke-on-Trent: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,279
1,3579054520Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 2014442
Jun 2014444
Sept 2014529
Dec 2014561
Mar 2015629
Jun 2015625
Sept 2015682
Dec 2015716
Mar 2016742
Jun 2016769
Sept 2016796
Dec 2016828
Mar 2017853
Jun 2017899
Sept 2017896
Dec 2017920
Mar 20181,024
Jun 20181,028
Sept 20181,018
Dec 20181,023
Mar 20191,025
Jun 20191,033
Sept 2019934
Dec 2019988
Mar 2020979
Jun 20201,019
Sept 20201,044
Dec 20201,007
Mar 2021983
Jun 2021921
Sept 2021869
Dec 2021843
Mar 2022844
Jun 2022852
Sept 2022840
Dec 20221,189
Mar 20231,174
Jun 20231,315
Sept 20231,357
Dec 20231,277
Mar 20241,196
Jun 20241,156
Sept 20241,281
Dec 20241,281
Mar 20251,248
Jun 20251,265
Sept 20251,307
Dec 20251,279

Trend

-28Latest quarter change
+837Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation999
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only22
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1,021
Homes for Ukraine
196
Afghan programme
77
Resettlement cumulative
21

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine196
Afghan programme77
Resettlement cumulative21

Population context

All pathways total1,294
Share of local population0.48%

Ethnic composition projection

Stoke-on-Trent: White British 78.5% (2021) to 46.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 44.7, 50.4%.

Ethnic composition: Stoke-on-Trent

023466991% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 34% in 2061White Other 13% in 2061Asian 23% in 2061Black 10% in 2061Mixed 9% in 2061Other 12% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Stoke-on-Trent

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
86%
2021
79%
10%
2031proj
69%
13%
2041proj
58%
10%
17%
2051proj
46%
12%
20%
2061proj
34%
13%
23%
10%
9%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Stoke-on-Trent ranges from53.8% to 63.6%by 2051. That is a 9.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 57.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 9.8% (2021) → 18.2% (2051). Christian 48.6% → 10.8%.

Religion: Stoke-on-Trent

522405775%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 70% in 2051Muslim 18% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

13.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 91.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Stoke-on-Trent

829507192%Census 2021UK-born 59% in 2051Foreign-born 41% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.2% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
white other15.8% internal, 4.3% international
black14.4% internal, 3.2% international
other11.6% internal, 2.4% international
mixed11% internal, 1.1% international
asian8.4% internal, 2.3% international
white british7.3% internal, 0.1% international

Why Stoke-on-Trent is changing

-7.9pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.5pp
Local migration
-1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Stoke-on-Trent on UK Demographics →