Trend
-28 Latest quarter change
+837 Change across series
48 Official data points
Stoke-on-Trent
Gareth Snell
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Stoke-on-Trent.
1,189 people housed on asylum support in Stoke-on-Trent
Rank 15 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 43.97 per 10,000 puts Stoke-on-Trent in the 97th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2041. 179 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £65M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Stoke-on-Trent
£23.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.0Msubsistence payments/year
£1.4MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,189 people on asylum support in Stoke-on-Trent (1.11% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Stoke-on-Trent: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 997
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 13
Contingency accommodation 179
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 190
Afghan programme 60
Resettlement cumulative 21
Population context
All pathways total 1,439
Share of local population 0.53%
Ethnic composition projection
Stoke-on-Trent: WBI 78.5% (2021) → 32.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2041. 80% CI: 38.9–43.1%.
Ethnic composition: Stoke-on-Trent
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Stoke-on-Trent
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Stoke-on-Trent ranges from 53.8% to 63.6% by 2051. That is a 9.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 57.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 9.8% (2021) → 18.2% (2051). Christian 48.6% → 10.8%.
Religion: Stoke-on-Trent
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
13.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 91.2% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Stoke-on-Trent
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.2% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
white other 15.8% internal, 4.3% international
black 14.4% internal, 3.2% international
other 11.6% internal, 2.4% international
mixed 11% internal, 1.1% international
asian 8.4% internal, 2.3% international
white british 7.3% internal, 0.1% international
Why Stoke-on-Trent is changing
-7.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Stoke-on-Trent on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.3%
Mixed 61.3%
White Other 75.9%
Other 55.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.3%
Mixed 35.1%
White Other 29.3%
Other 25.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 21.1%
Mixed 26.8%
White Other 31%
Other 27.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 41,299 pupils. 59.2% White British. Schools are 19.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 59.2%
Asian 18.9%
Black 7.6%
Mixed 5.9%
White Other 5.6%
Other 2.8%
What this means
Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
40.8% Minority pupils now
55.3% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
58.2% Primary WBI
59.7% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.38pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 68.3% vs school 59.2% (-9.1pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,189 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
43.97 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
179 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in West Midlands by supported asylum.