Trend
+18 Latest quarter change
+686 Change across series
48 Official data points
Sunderland
Bridget Phillipson
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Sunderland.
805 people housed on asylum support in Sunderland
Rank 29 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 27.89 per 10,000 puts Sunderland in the 88th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £44M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Sunderland
£15.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.1Msubsistence payments/year
£966KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 805 people on asylum support in Sunderland (0.75% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Sunderland: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 799
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 6
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 212
Afghan programme 47
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,064
Share of local population 0.37%
Ethnic composition projection
Sunderland: WBI 92.9% (2021) → 80.5% (2051). 80% CI: 79.4–82.2%.
Ethnic composition: Sunderland
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Sunderland
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Sunderland ranges from 69.7% to 83.0% by 2051. That is a 13.3pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 75.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.9% (2021) → 1.6% (2051). Christian 55.7% → 8.8%.
Religion: Sunderland
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
5.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 97.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Sunderland
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.3% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black 15.2% internal, 21.8% international
other 11.7% internal, 10.4% international
white other 14.1% internal, 6.3% international
asian 10.6% internal, 5.3% international
mixed 12.9% internal, 1.6% international
white british 6.9% internal, 0.1% international
Why Sunderland is changing
-1.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Sunderland on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 55.4%
Mixed 65.8%
White Other 67.8%
Other 57.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 59%
Mixed 47.5%
White Other 40.4%
Other 37.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.1%
Mixed 38.7%
White Other 40.6%
Other 44.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 41,568 pupils. 84.3% White British. Schools are 8.6pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 84.3%
Black 5.7%
Asian 5%
Mixed 2.5%
White Other 1.8%
Other 0.7%
What this means
Schools are 9pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
15.7% Minority pupils now
21.5% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
82.7% Primary WBI
85.5% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.01pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 90.2% vs school 84.3% (-5.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
805 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
27.89 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North East by supported asylum.