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Wales

Swansea

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
Carolyn Harris
Carolyn Harris Labour · Neath and Swansea East

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Swansea.

677 people housed on asylum support in Swansea

Rank 41 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 26.94 per 10,000 puts Swansea in the 87th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £37M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Swansea

£13.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£812KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 677 people on asylum support in Swansea (0.63% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Swansea: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

701
986 657 329 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Mar 2018 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

-8 Latest quarter change
+191 Change across series
48 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 659
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 18
Contingency accommodation 0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
677
Homes for Ukraine
353
Afghan programme
61
Resettlement cumulative
164

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 353
Afghan programme 61
Resettlement cumulative 164

Population context

All pathways total 1,091
Share of local population 0.43%

Ethnic composition projection

Swansea: WBI 87.5% (2021) → 69.5% (2051). 80% CI: 54–62.8%.

Ethnic composition: Swansea

0 24 48 72 96 % of population Census 2021 White British 69% White Other 8% Asian 11% Black 4% Mixed 4% Other 4% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Swansea

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
91%
2021
88%
2026 proj
85%
2031 proj
82%
2036 proj
79%
2041 proj
76%
9%
2046 proj
72%
10%
2051 proj
69%
8%
11%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 3.5% (2021) → 6.0% (2051). Christian 44.3% → 11.2%.

Religion: Swansea

0 22 43 65 86 % Census 2021 Christian 11% No religion 81% Muslim 6% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

9.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.31). 95.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Swansea

4 27 50 73 96 % Census 2021 UK-born 68% Foreign-born 33% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Swansea is changing

-4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.9pp
Local migration
+3.3pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Swansea on UK Demographics →