Trend
+22 Latest quarter change
+472 Change across series
48 Official data points
Swindon
Will Stone
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Swindon.
515 people housed on asylum support in Swindon
Rank 58 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 21.12 per 10,000 puts Swindon in the 82nd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2037. 63 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £28M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Swindon
£10.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£618KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 515 people on asylum support in Swindon (0.48% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Swindon: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 439
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 13
Contingency accommodation 63
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 414
Afghan programme 191
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,120
Share of local population 0.46%
Ethnic composition projection
Swindon: WBI 74.2% (2021) → 26.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2037. 80% CI: 34.2–37.9%.
Ethnic composition: Swindon
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Swindon
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Swindon ranges from 50.9% to 60.9% by 2051. That is a 10pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 54.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.9% (2021) → 7.3% (2051). Christian 49.4% → 16.5%.
Religion: Swindon
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
20.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 90% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Swindon
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 9% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
white other 14.1% internal, 3.7% international
other 13.3% internal, 4% international
black 12.8% internal, 3% international
asian 12% internal, 3% international
mixed 12.2% internal, 1.5% international
white british 7.7% internal, 0.2% international
Why Swindon is changing
-10.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Swindon on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65%
Mixed 71.2%
White Other 78.5%
Other 66.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.1%
Mixed 43.9%
White Other 46.1%
Other 48.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.9%
Mixed 29.3%
White Other 38.8%
Other 30.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 36,954 pupils. 61% White British. Schools are 13.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 61%
Asian 16.4%
White Other 8.3%
Mixed 6.7%
Black 6.1%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
39% Minority pupils now
62.9% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
57.9% Primary WBI
64.7% Secondary WBI
Accelerating diversification. Primary schools are significantly more diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.64pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 68.9% vs school 61% (-7.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
515 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
21.12 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
63 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South West by supported asylum.