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South West

Swindon

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Will Stone
Will StoneLabour · Swindon North

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Swindon.

511 people on asylum support in Swindon

Rank 58 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 20.83 per 10,000 puts Swindon in the 83rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2044. 11 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 52 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 511 people at £107 per person per day is about £20.0M a year.

What asylum costs Swindon

£11.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.3Msubsistence payments/year
£613KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 511 people on asylum support in Swindon(0.55% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Swindon: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

562
8055372680Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201490
Jun 201490
Sept 201493
Dec 201494
Mar 201584
Jun 2015106
Sept 2015129
Dec 2015169
Mar 2016176
Jun 2016168
Sept 2016175
Dec 2016172
Mar 2017176
Jun 2017167
Sept 2017161
Dec 2017166
Mar 2018208
Jun 2018183
Sept 2018202
Dec 2018193
Mar 2019182
Jun 2019174
Sept 2019194
Dec 2019197
Mar 2020198
Jun 2020214
Sept 2020239
Dec 2020232
Mar 2021250
Jun 2021261
Sept 2021231
Dec 2021275
Mar 2022310
Jun 2022338
Sept 2022360
Dec 2022732
Mar 2023723
Jun 2023805
Sept 2023798
Dec 2023744
Mar 2024578
Jun 2024523
Sept 2024592
Dec 2024560
Mar 2025551
Jun 2025568
Sept 2025540
Dec 2025562

Trend

+22Latest quarter change
+472Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation448
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only11
Contingency accommodation52

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
511
Homes for Ukraine
422
Afghan programme
192
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine422
Afghan programme192
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total1,125
Share of local population0.46%

Ethnic composition projection

Shown to 2051 rather than 2061. Past that point the model puts a residual Census category above a quarter of the population and several times its 2021 share, which is unconstrained compounding rather than a forecast, so those years are withheld.

Swindon: White British 74.2% (2021) to 41.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2044. 80% CI: 40.2, 45.8%.

Ethnic composition: Swindon

022456790% of populationCensus 2021White British 42% in 2051White Other 10% in 2051Asian 30% in 2051Black 6% in 2051Mixed 7% in 2051Other 5% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Swindon

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
85%
2021
74%
12%
2031proj
65%
9%
17%
2041proj
54%
10%
23%
2051proj
42%
10%
30%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Swindon ranges from50.9% to 60.9%by 2051. That is a 10pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 54.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.9% (2021) → 7.3% (2051). Christian 49.4% → 16.5%.

Religion: Swindon

016334965%Census 2021Christian 17% in 2051No religion 60% in 2051Muslim 7% in 2051Hindu 14% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

20.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 90% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Swindon

1533506785%Census 2021UK-born 46% in 2051Foreign-born 54% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 9% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
white other14.1% internal, 3.7% international
other13.3% internal, 4% international
black12.8% internal, 3% international
asian12% internal, 3% international
mixed12.2% internal, 1.5% international
white british7.7% internal, 0.2% international

Why Swindon is changing

-10.4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
-3.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Swindon on UK Demographics →