Trend
-53 Latest quarter change
+707 Change across series
48 Official data points
Telford and Wrekin
Shaun Davies
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Telford and Wrekin.
566 people housed on asylum support in Telford and Wrekin
Rank 55 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 28.88 per 10,000 puts Telford and Wrekin in the 89th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2047. 89 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £31M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Telford and Wrekin
£11.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.4Msubsistence payments/year
£679KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 566 people on asylum support in Telford and Wrekin (0.53% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Telford and Wrekin: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 473
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 89
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 380
Afghan programme 231
Resettlement cumulative 56
Population context
All pathways total 1,177
Share of local population 0.6%
Ethnic composition projection
Telford and Wrekin: WBI 83.0% (2021) → 42.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2047. 80% CI: 55–59.3%.
Ethnic composition: Telford and Wrekin
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Telford and Wrekin
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Telford and Wrekin ranges from 55.3% to 69.0% by 2051. That is a 13.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.6% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 2.9% (2021) → 5.2% (2051). Christian 50.4% → 12.5%.
Religion: Telford and Wrekin
Christian No religion Muslim
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
11.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.39). 93.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Telford and Wrekin
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.5% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black 14% internal, 3.6% international
white other 13.5% internal, 3.1% international
mixed 12.7% internal, 0.7% international
asian 8.8% internal, 3.5% international
other 9.6% internal, 2.7% international
white british 9% internal, 0.2% international
Why Telford and Wrekin is changing
-6.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Telford and Wrekin on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.5%
Mixed 68.3%
White Other 80%
Other 65.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 62.2%
Mixed 41.4%
White Other 37.6%
Other 53.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 25.7%
Mixed 28.1%
White Other 30.5%
Other 33.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 31,791 pupils. 68.2% White British. Schools are 14.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 68.2%
Asian 10.4%
Black 7.3%
Mixed 6.8%
White Other 6.5%
Other 0.8%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
31.8% Minority pupils now
40.4% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
68.1% Primary WBI
67.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.42pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 76.3% vs school 68.2% (-8.1pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
566 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
28.88 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
89 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in West Midlands by supported asylum.