Trend
-10 Latest quarter change
+506 Change across series
48 Official data points
Walsall
Valerie Vaz
650 people housed on asylum support in Walsall
Rank 44 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 21.98 per 10,000 puts Walsall in the 83rd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2034. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £36M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Walsall
£12.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£1.7Msubsistence payments/year
£780KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 650 people on asylum support in Walsall (0.61% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Walsall: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 638
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 12
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 144
Afghan programme 193
Resettlement cumulative 25
Population context
All pathways total 987
Share of local population 0.33%
Ethnic composition projection
Walsall: WBI 67.4% (2021) → 21.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2034. 80% CI: 29.6–32.9%.
Ethnic composition: Walsall
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Walsall
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Walsall ranges from 45.0% to 52.4% by 2051. That is a 7.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 48.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 11.9% (2021) → 17.0% (2051). Christian 47.1% → 11.2%.
Religion: Walsall
Christian No religion Muslim Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
14.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.58). 90.2% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Walsall
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Census 2021 mobility: 6.5% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
white other 11.5% internal, 2% international
black 10.3% internal, 2% international
other 9.1% internal, 2.5% international
mixed 9.9% internal, 0.4% international
asian 6.9% internal, 1.1% international
white british 5.6% internal, 0.1% international
Why Walsall is changing
-9.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Walsall on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.7%
Mixed 65.4%
White Other 73.2%
Other 60.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 61.5%
Mixed 31.6%
White Other 34.2%
Other 59.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 23.2%
Mixed 26.3%
White Other 29.5%
Other 34%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 53,868 pupils. 50.7% White British. Schools are 16.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 50.7%
Asian 26.3%
Black 9.1%
Mixed 7.9%
White Other 4.3%
Other 1.7%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
49.3% Minority pupils now
66.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
50.2% Primary WBI
50.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.19pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 56% vs school 50.7% (-5.3pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
650 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
21.98 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in West Midlands by supported asylum.