asylumstats Follow YOUR money
West Midlands

Warwick

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office
Rachel Taylor
Rachel Taylor Labour · North Warwickshire and Bedworth

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Warwick.

360 people housed on asylum support in Warwick

Rank 88 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 23.24 per 10,000 puts Warwick in the 85th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2048. 281 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £20M per year for this area alone.

What asylum costs Warwick

£7.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£921Ksubsistence payments/year
£432KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 360 people on asylum support in Warwick (0.34% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.

Warwick: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

435
474 316 158 0 Mar 2014 Dec 2025 Peak Sept 2025 Rwanda scheme Albania deal Bibby Stockholm Rwanda scrapped

Trend

-39 Latest quarter change
+433 Change across series
39 Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation 76
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 281

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
360
Homes for Ukraine
477
Afghan programme
107
Resettlement cumulative
39

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine 477
Afghan programme 107
Resettlement cumulative 39

Population context

All pathways total 944
Share of local population 0.61%

Ethnic composition projection

Warwick: WBI 75.9% (2021) → 47.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 45.7–51%.

Ethnic composition: Warwick

0 22 44 66 88 % of population Census 2021 Illustrative White British 37% White Other 28% Asian 18% Mixed 9% Other 8% 20112021203120412051
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Warwick

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
83%
2021
76%
9%
10%
2031 proj
68%
12%
12%
2041 proj
58%
17%
14%
2051 proj
47%
22%
17%
2061 proj
37%
28%
18%
9%
8%
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Warwick ranges from 46.3% to 60.1% by 2051. That is a 13.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 51.6% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.6% (2021) → 3.4% (2051). Christian 47.5% → 11.2%.

Religion: Warwick

0 18 37 55 73 % Census 2021 Christian 11% No religion 68% Muslim 3% Hindu 13% Sikh 3% 2021203120412051
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

16.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.49). 91.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Warwick

11 31 50 69 89 % Census 2021 UK-born 53% Foreign-born 47% 2021203120412051
UK-born Foreign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 11.7% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
black 25.9% internal, 2.7% international
white other 16.2% internal, 5.2% international
asian 14.4% internal, 5% international
mixed 15.8% internal, 2% international
other 13.1% internal, 4.6% international
white british 10.4% internal, 0.4% international

Why Warwick is changing

-7.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.3pp
Local migration
-0.8pp

White British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profile School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics. View Warwick on UK Demographics →