asylumstatsFollow the money
West Midlands

Warwick

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Rachel Taylor
Rachel TaylorLabour · North Warwickshire and Bedworth

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Warwick.

380 people on asylum support in Warwick

Rank 80 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 24.06 per 10,000 puts Warwick in the 86th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2057. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 262 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 380 people at £107 per person per day is about £14.8M a year.

What asylum costs Warwick

£8.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£972Ksubsistence payments/year
£456KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 380 people on asylum support in Warwick(0.41% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Warwick: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

435
4743161580Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20142
Jun 20142
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20151
Mar 20171
Dec 20174
Mar 20184
Jun 20183
Sept 20183
Dec 20183
Mar 20193
Jun 20193
Sept 20193
Mar 20201
Jun 20201
Sept 20201
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Sept 20212
Dec 202197
Mar 202222
Jun 20229
Sept 202236
Dec 2022161
Mar 2023191
Jun 2023115
Sept 2023129
Dec 2023182
Mar 202482
Jun 202472
Sept 202479
Dec 2024301
Mar 2025214
Jun 2025420
Sept 2025474
Dec 2025435

Trend

-39Latest quarter change
+433Change across series
39Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation116
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation262

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
380
Homes for Ukraine
481
Afghan programme
113
Resettlement cumulative
39

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine481
Afghan programme113
Resettlement cumulative39

Population context

All pathways total974
Share of local population0.62%

Ethnic composition projection

Warwick: White British 75.9% (2021) to 54.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2057. 80% CI: 52.6, 58.6%.

Ethnic composition: Warwick

022446688% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 47% in 2061White Other 14% in 2061Asian 18% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 8% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Warwick

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
83%
2021
76%
9%
10%
2031proj
70%
10%
12%
2041proj
62%
12%
14%
2051proj
55%
13%
16%
8%
2061proj
47%
14%
18%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Warwick ranges from46.3% to 60.1%by 2051. That is a 13.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 51.6% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.6% (2021) → 3.4% (2051). Christian 47.5% → 11.2%.

Religion: Warwick

018375573%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 68% in 2051Muslim 3% in 2051Hindu 13% in 2051Sikh 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHinduSikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

16.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.49). 91.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Warwick

1131506989%Census 2021UK-born 53% in 2051Foreign-born 47% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 11.7% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
black25.9% internal, 2.7% international
white other16.2% internal, 5.2% international
asian14.4% internal, 5% international
mixed15.8% internal, 2% international
other13.1% internal, 4.6% international
white british10.4% internal, 0.4% international

Why Warwick is changing

-7.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.3pp
Local migration
-0.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Warwick on UK Demographics →