Trend
+15 Latest quarter change
+206 Change across series
43 Official data points
Wiltshire
Danny Kruger
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Wiltshire.
205 people housed on asylum support in Wiltshire
Rank 142 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.91 per 10,000 puts Wiltshire in the 38th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £11M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Wiltshire
£4.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£524Ksubsistence payments/year
£246KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 205 people on asylum support in Wiltshire (0.19% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Wiltshire: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 202
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,756
Afghan programme 458
Resettlement cumulative 179
Population context
All pathways total 2,419
Share of local population 0.46%
Ethnic composition projection
Wiltshire: WBI 90.1% (2021) → 72.8% (2051). 80% CI: 74.2–76.8%.
Ethnic composition: Wiltshire
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Wiltshire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Wiltshire ranges from 73.7% to 81.7% by 2051. That is a 8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 77.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.7% (2021) → 1.4% (2051). Christian 53.4% → 12.8%.
Religion: Wiltshire
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
9.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.26). 96.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Wiltshire
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.6% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
other 15.4% internal, 3.8% international
black 16.4% internal, 2.7% international
asian 14.2% internal, 4.8% international
mixed 13.5% internal, 1.5% international
white other 12.1% internal, 2.8% international
white british 9.2% internal, 0.4% international
Why Wiltshire is changing
-3.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Wiltshire on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.8%
Mixed 70.6%
White Other 75.2%
Other 65.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 69.2%
Mixed 49.9%
White Other 49.7%
Other 35%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 33.6%
Mixed 37.1%
White Other 45.6%
Other 31.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 68,328 pupils. 82.8% White British. Schools are 7.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 82.8%
White Other 5.4%
Mixed 4.3%
Asian 3.5%
Black 2.8%
Other 1.2%
What this means
Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
17.2% Minority pupils now
31.1% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
83.1% Primary WBI
82.4% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.61pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 87.4% vs school 82.8% (-4.6pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
205 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
3.91 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South West by supported asylum.