Trend
+3 Latest quarter change
+165 Change across series
48 Official data points
Barking and Dagenham
Nesil Caliskan
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Barking and Dagenham.
301 people housed on asylum support in Barking and Dagenham
Rank 106 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 12.93 per 10,000 puts Barking and Dagenham in the 65th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £16M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Barking and Dagenham
£5.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£770Ksubsistence payments/year
£361KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 301 people on asylum support in Barking and Dagenham (0.28% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Barking and Dagenham: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 271
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 30
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 992
Afghan programme 37
Resettlement cumulative 9
Population context
All pathways total 1,330
Share of local population 0.57%
Ethnic composition projection
Barking and Dagenham: WBI 30.9% (2021) → 2.7% (2051). 80% CI: 3.7–4.4%.
Ethnic composition: Barking and Dagenham
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Barking and Dagenham
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Barking and Dagenham ranges from 16.8% to 19.3% by 2051. That is a 2.5pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 17.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 25.8% (2021) → 71.6% (2051). Christian 48.0% → 12.7%.
Religion: Barking and Dagenham
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
41.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.88). 75.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Barking and Dagenham
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.3% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
white other 11.5% internal, 1.6% international
other 9.3% internal, 1.9% international
asian 8.9% internal, 1.8% international
mixed 8.7% internal, 0.5% international
black 6.7% internal, 0.8% international
white british 4.1% internal, 0.2% international
Why Barking and Dagenham is changing
-18.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Barking and Dagenham on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.3%
Mixed 64.8%
White Other 78.5%
Other 63.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 45.9%
Mixed 30.7%
White Other 36.5%
Other 40.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 33%
Mixed 31.6%
White Other 34.6%
Other 33.9%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 45,308 pupils. 15.9% White British. Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 34.4%
Black 23.8%
White British 15.9%
White Other 14.3%
Mixed 9.5%
Other 2.2%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
84.1% Minority pupils now
95.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
14.5% Primary WBI
17.2% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.07pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 22.3% vs school 15.9% (-6.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
301 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
12.93 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in London by supported asylum.