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Barnet

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dan Tomlinson
Dan TomlinsonLabour · Chipping Barnet

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Barnet.

878 people on asylum support in Barnet

Rank 24 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 21.52 per 10,000 puts Barnet in the 84th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 116 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 731 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 878 people at £107 per person per day is about £34.3M a year.

What asylum costs Barnet

£19.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.2Msubsistence payments/year
£1.1MLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 878 people on asylum support in Barnet(0.94% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Barnet: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1,393
1,9701,3136570Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201498
Jun 201490
Sept 201481
Dec 201497
Mar 201583
Jun 201584
Sept 201578
Dec 201571
Mar 201670
Jun 201681
Sept 201699
Dec 201697
Mar 201795
Jun 201795
Sept 201784
Dec 201771
Mar 201877
Jun 201877
Sept 201887
Dec 201882
Mar 201990
Jun 2019120
Sept 2019131
Dec 2019129
Mar 2020126
Jun 2020149
Sept 2020170
Dec 2020169
Mar 2021171
Jun 2021194
Sept 2021197
Dec 2021218
Mar 2022216
Jun 2022266
Sept 2022329
Dec 20221,640
Mar 20231,760
Jun 20231,970
Sept 20231,845
Dec 20231,601
Mar 20241,467
Jun 20241,105
Sept 20241,301
Dec 20241,613
Mar 20251,627
Jun 20251,380
Sept 20251,588
Dec 20251,393

Trend

-195Latest quarter change
+1,295Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation31
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only116
Contingency accommodation731

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
878
Homes for Ukraine
1,988
Afghan programme
185
Resettlement cumulative
59

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine1,988
Afghan programme185
Resettlement cumulative59

Population context

All pathways total3,051
Share of local population0.75%

Ethnic composition projection

Shown to 2041 rather than 2061. Past that point the model puts a residual Census category above a quarter of the population and several times its 2021 share, which is unconstrained compounding rather than a forecast, so those years are withheld.

Barnet: White British 36.2% (2021), projected to 2041.

Ethnic composition: Barnet

013253850% of populationCensus 2021White British 21% in 2041White Other 22% in 2041Asian 18% in 2041Black 8% in 2041Mixed 8% in 2041Other 23% in 20412011202120312041
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Barnet

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
45%
19%
19%
9%
2021
36%
22%
19%
10%
2031proj
29%
22%
19%
8%
15%
2041proj
21%
22%
18%
23%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Barnet ranges from23.8% to 26.2%by 2051. That is a 2.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 24.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 13.3% (2021) → 19.1% (2051). Christian 39.7% → 23.8%.

Religion: Barnet

011223445%Census 2021Christian 24% in 2051No religion 37% in 2051Muslim 19% in 2051Hindu 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

43.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.89). 77.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Barnet

1734506683%Census 2021UK-born 22% in 2051Foreign-born 78% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 1.5% arrived from abroad
white other12.2% internal, 2.3% international
other10.8% internal, 2.1% international
mixed10.8% internal, 1.1% international
asian8.9% internal, 2.4% international
black9.1% internal, 1.9% international
white british7.4% internal, 0.4% international

Why Barnet is changing

-9.3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+2.8pp
Local migration
-5.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Barnet on UK Demographics →