Trend
-195 Latest quarter change
+1,295 Change across series
48 Official data points
Barnet
Dan Tomlinson
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Barnet.
1,137 people housed on asylum support in Barnet
Rank 18 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 28.07 per 10,000 puts Barnet in the 88th percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 992 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £62M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Barnet
£22.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£2.9Msubsistence payments/year
£1.4MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,137 people on asylum support in Barnet (1.06% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Barnet: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 38
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 107
Contingency accommodation 992
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,949
Afghan programme 201
Resettlement cumulative 59
Population context
All pathways total 3,287
Share of local population 0.81%
Ethnic composition projection
Barnet: WBI 36.2% (2021) → 10.7% (2051). 80% CI: 10.2–11.9%.
Ethnic composition: Barnet
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Barnet
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Barnet ranges from 23.8% to 26.2% by 2051. That is a 2.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 24.8% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 13.3% (2021) → 19.1% (2051). Christian 39.7% → 23.8%.
Religion: Barnet
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
43.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.89). 77.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Barnet
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 1.5% arrived from abroad
white other 12.2% internal, 2.3% international
other 10.8% internal, 2.1% international
mixed 10.8% internal, 1.1% international
asian 8.9% internal, 2.4% international
black 9.1% internal, 1.9% international
white british 7.4% internal, 0.4% international
Why Barnet is changing
-9.3ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Barnet on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.8%
Mixed 65.9%
White Other 73.8%
Other 60.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.6%
Mixed 38.4%
White Other 43.3%
Other 43.5%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 48.9%
Mixed 48.1%
White Other 49.7%
Other 48.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 60,157 pupils. 26.2% White British. Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 26.2%
White Other 22.8%
Asian 16.1%
Other 12.4%
Mixed 12.2%
Black 10.2%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
73.8% Minority pupils now
85.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
27.8% Primary WBI
24.3% Secondary WBI
Slowing diversification. Primary schools are less diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.48pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 36.1% vs school 26.2% (-9.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,137 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
28.07 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
992 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in London by supported asylum.